As borrowing costs climb amid deteriorating fiscal conditions in developed economies, bitcoin's edge as a hard asset is coming into sharper focus, with its price swings proving notably milder than gold's.
Data from TradingView and CoinDesk reveal that the 90-day correlation coefficient between daily returns of bitcoin and gold has hit 0.59, the highest reading since 2020. That period marked a time when central banks and governments ramped up money printing to steady economies and markets during the pandemic, setting the stage for their synchronized movements. While both assets are viewed as hard holdings that can benefit in environments of fiscal crises and financial repression, bitcoin holds a structural advantage, largely due to its unique relationship with the 10-year US Treasury yield, a key credit benchmark.
Figures compiled by Woofun AI show that when rising bond yields pressure assets that generate no cash flow, the 90-day correlation between bitcoin's dollar exchange rate and the 10-year Treasury yield sits at just -0.17, a negligible impact. In contrast, gold shows a correlation of -0.41, reflecting a more pronounced negative link. This suggests bitcoin is less exposed to the adverse effects of yield-driven shifts and better able to shake off tightening credit conditions.
Charts further confirm that the 90-day rolling correlation between bitcoin and daily changes in the 10-year Treasury yield is as low as -0.017, nearly zero negative correlation, indicating yield fluctuations have almost no bearing on bitcoin's price. Still, investors should remain cautious—this low correlation offers a buffer, but it doesn't make the asset fully immune to macroeconomic risks.
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