Goldman Sachs' global commodities research team, in a report released on January 28, significantly raised its price forecasts for two key metals, gold and copper, predicting this will directly drive a systematic upward revision of profit expectations for relevant Chinese mining enterprises. The report notes that a scarcity premium for resources has already materially emerged.
According to the report, the 2026 baseline gold price target was raised by 10%-16%, with the projected average price for that year reaching $4,978 per ounce; concurrently, the 2026 LME copper price forecast was lifted by 7% to $12,200 per ton. Based on these price adjustments, Goldman Sachs correspondingly increased its 2026-2027 profit forecasts for the covered Chinese copper and gold companies by 9%-33%.
The research report emphasizes that leading companies with significant production growth potential will benefit from a dual tailwind of rising prices and capacity expansion, with copper output growth for some firms expected to reach 9%-14% in 2026. From a valuation perspective, current stock prices generally still reflect relatively conservative commodity price expectations; if the long-term target prices are gradually realized, the sector's current valuation offers a clear margin of safety and substantial upside potential.
Structural allocation is pushing gold prices higher, while capital inflows are forging a copper scarcity premium.
Goldman Sachs' global team's latest research indicates that the commodities market is entering a phase of structural revaluation, particularly evident in precious and industrial metals.
For gold, the team raised its 2026 average price forecast by 10% to $4,978 per ounce and significantly increased its H1 2027 average price forecast by 16% to $5,585 per ounce. Goldman Sachs analysis points out that the key upside factor previously highlighted in reports—a "structural increase in private sector allocation to gold assets"—has begun to materialize, becoming a major driver of gold prices.
The supply-demand dynamics and price drivers for the copper market exhibit significant complexity. The team raised its 2026 LME copper price forecast by 7% to $12,200 per ton, with the H1 2026 forecast specifically increased from $11,525 to $12,750 per ton. The core factor driving prices higher is robust investor capital inflows, which are imparting a notable "scarcity premium" to copper prices.
The report further analyzes that copper inventories outside the US are already at historically low levels, while market expectations of potential US copper tariffs are prompting metal flows into the US, further exacerbating supply tightness in other global regions. However, Goldman Sachs also highlights short-term adjustment risks, maintaining its Q4 2026 copper price forecast of $11,200 per ton unchanged, believing that if tariff policies are implemented by then, stockpiling behavior in the US market may subside, allowing global oversupply fundamentals to reassert dominance over price trends.
Scarcity premiums are driving value revaluation, with leaders poised to capitalize on volume and price increases.
Goldman Sachs points out that China's copper and gold mining industry is entering a strategic period of overlapping dual drivers: rising prices and capacity expansion.
Leading companies with outstanding production growth prospects stand to benefit particularly. The report anticipates that copper output for some major producers could achieve growth of 9% to 14% in 2026. Based on their existing project pipelines, these companies are generally expected to reach production targets by 2028, with total output potentially increasing by 40% to 45% compared to 2025 levels.
Furthermore, in a high gold price environment, merger and acquisition activity within the industry is becoming more active. Companies are accelerating the acquisition of high-quality gold assets, further enhancing their upside profit potential.
From a valuation standpoint, current market pricing remains conservative. Goldman Sachs analysis indicates that, based on calculations using 2028 expected production targets as a benchmark, the current stock prices of some leading companies imply a long-term copper price expectation of only $9,000 to $10,000 per ton, significantly lower than the bank's forecast for long-term market equilibrium prices, suggesting valuations are highly attractive at this stage.
Profit forecasts are raised,看好 capacity and price double boost.
Based on its optimistic outlook for key metal prices, Goldman Sachs has raised profit forecasts for leading Chinese mining companies Zijin Mining Group and China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. in its latest research report.
The report states that Zijin Mining is experiencing dual drivers of capacity expansion and asset acquisitions. The second phase of its Julong Copper Mine project has been completed, leading to a substantial leap in mining and processing scale, which is expected to significantly boost the company's overall copper output upon full operation. Concurrently, the company announced its intention to acquire Allied Gold, a move expected to add considerable gold resources and profit contributions to its existing production base. Goldman Sachs consequently raised its 2026-2027 recurring profit forecast for Zijin Mining by 14% to 18%.
On the other hand, China Molybdenum's copper production guidance exceeded market expectations, primarily benefiting from technological upgrades and efficient operations at existing projects. Additionally, the company has completed the acquisition of a significant gold asset in Brazil, expected to contribute new gold production and profit growth starting in 2026. Based on the positive prospects of rising volumes and prices, Goldman Sachs raised its recurring profit forecast for China Molybdenum for the same period by 20% to 24%.
The report concludes that in a structurally high metal price environment, leading companies with clear production growth pathways will possess significant earnings elasticity.
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