On August 11, gold prices experienced a volatile upward trajectory during the previous session. The Asian session opened with a slight dip, but prices later climbed to around $4,360, yielding profits for long positions. Subsequently, prices fell back below $4,320, only to rally to a fresh intraday high of $4,395 during the U.S. session. Gold ultimately settled at $4,390, marking a second consecutive daily gain.
On Tuesday, August 11, the impact of last week's "dismal" non-farm payrolls data continues to ripple through markets. Weakness in both non-farm payrolls and ADP employment figures has cooled expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike, driving the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields lower. This has significantly alleviated valuation pressures on precious metals. According to CME data, the probability of a September rate hike has fallen to 44%, with the market beginning to reprice the "no hike" scenario. Additionally, Iran has linked the "reopening of the Strait of Hormuz" to conditions such as lifting sanctions, war reparations, and a cessation of military operations. In response, former President Trump has countered that Iran must also compensate the U.S., embedding this demand into all future negotiations. The result is that a strait transit agreement is unlikely to be finalized in the near term, leading to a jump in oil prices and a return of shipping risk premiums. Gold has incidentally benefited from some safe-haven buying. However, these geopolitical events are "pulse-like" in nature 鈥?they trigger a rally when news breaks and fade when it subsides. They should not be treated as the sole reason for chasing a one-sided long position.
From a technical perspective, gold is exhibiting extremely severe overbought signals across daily, 1-hour, and 4-hour charts. The 4-hour chart, in particular, shows multiple instances of bearish divergence. While technical indicators currently offer limited direct guidance, the convergence of divergent signals warrants caution. The current strength in the Asian session is an extension of overnight sentiment, but such a move during the Asian session carries the highest risk. Although prices are extending, there is limited reference for support. In the short term, upside resistance can be monitored around the upper edge of the ascending channel on the hourly chart, near the $4,440-$4,450 zone. To the downside, the focus will be on a pullback to the previous support area of $4,380-$4,370. The most treacherous aspect of this market is not the decline itself, but the feeling of "seeing prices stuck near $4,400 and fearing missing out." The real answer will come tomorrow; jumping in early today risks getting slapped on both sides. It is advisable to keep positions light and save ammunition for the CPI data, which is far more important.
The author does not foresee a continued strong rally and instead anticipates a pullback. However, if prices break directly above the $4,450 level, one could reverse by closing short positions and opening longs. For intraday trading, the recommendation is: Gold: Short at $4,420-$4,422, with a stop-loss at $4,430, targeting the $4,360-$4,350 range. Break below that level could extend the move. Key economic data and events to watch on Tuesday, August 11, 2026: 18:00 - U.S. July NFIB Small Business Optimism Index; 20:15 - U.S. July ADP Employment Change (weekly change); 22:00 - U.S. July Existing Home Sales (annualized).
Comments