On the 7th local time, international oil prices continued to fall during intraday trading, with New York crude oil futures once dropping below $90 per barrel, driven by growing market expectations that the conflict would cool down.
Since the start of this week, international oil prices have fallen sharply, with the main contract of London Brent crude oil futures accumulating a weekly decline of over 16%, marking the largest single-week drop since 2020.
According to analysis, the oil price decline is mainly affected by two factors.
On one hand, after the US midterm elections concluded, investors reassessed the risk of military conflict escalation between the United States and Iran as well as the possibility of a breakthrough in diplomatic negotiations. Expectations for further conflict escalation have cooled, and the geopolitical risk premium from earlier periods has been rapidly unwound.
On the other hand, Middle East crude oil supply is trending toward loosening. "OPEC+" member countries decided to maintain current production levels unchanged in December, with no further tightening on the supply side. Meanwhile, total crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Kuwait grew by 10% in October, reaching over 15 million barrels per day.
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