UBS recently hosted an expert conference call on the commercialization of brain-computer interface (BCI) technology, with a very clear core conclusion: although China currently lags approximately two years behind the United States in core BCI technology, this gap is expected to narrow significantly within the next two years.
According to information, the latest UBS research report stated that during a recent expert conference call on the BCI industry, experts indicated that while Chinese companies currently trail their US counterparts by about two years, the Chinese BCI market is projected to experience exponential growth as product maturity improves and application scenarios expand.
Experts revealed that Chinese BCI products are at various stages of research, development, and commercialization. Non-invasive products are already available on the market, with more expected to launch within the next 6 to 12 months. Semi-invasive products are anticipated to debut in China within 1 to 2 years, while invasive products may be introduced in 2 to 3 years.
Experts project that by 2030, the overall market size for BCI products in China could reach hundreds of billions of yuan. Non-invasive products are expected to capture at least 70% of the market share, significantly higher than that of semi-invasive and invasive products.
The research report stated that experts on the call pointed out that BCI technology from domestic Chinese companies currently lags approximately two years behind US peers like Neuralink. However, this gap is not insurmountable and is expected to begin "meaningfully" narrowing within two years.
In terms of electrode technology, US companies possess more advanced equipment and processing techniques. For instance, Chinese products typically feature 128 to 256 channels, whereas Neuralink can achieve up to 1024 channels. Nevertheless, experts believe that with industry development and rising demand for BCI electrodes, China is expected to achieve mass production of flexible micro/nano-cortical electrodes within 3 to 5 years.
Regarding chips, Neuralink develops its own chips with high system integration. In contrast, Chinese companies tend to import chips, which generally meet clinical requirements. Experts noted that constraints for domestic chip manufacturers in BCI chip production relate more to demand than technical capability. Simultaneously, the cost for BCI companies to develop chips independently is high, and the volume required for mass production far exceeds the current demand for BCI products.
In decoding technology, US decoding teams are often more mature and have stronger appeal for top talent. Chinese companies have relatively weaker appeal for elite talent and typically optimize based on mature algorithms published abroad.
According to the UBS report, the expert call highlighted significant differences in regulatory approval timelines and market launch schedules for different technological approaches. Specifically:
Non-invasive products are applied in rehabilitation training, mental illness assessment and treatment, sleep monitoring and therapy, and fatigue monitoring. Most of these products are classified as Class I or II medical devices; China already has products on the market, and experts expect more launches within the next 6 to 12 months.
For semi-invasive products, traditional electrocorticography (ECoG) can be used for intraoperative monitoring and basic motor decoding, while flexible ECoG enables higher-precision motor decoding. Brain-spine interfaces can provide continuous electrical stimulation via epidurally implanted spinal electrodes, allowing patients to regain voluntary limb movement.
These products are classified as Class III medical devices, and experts anticipate the first product will launch in China within 1 to 2 years.
Invasive products are used for external robotic arm/cursor control, sensory restoration, and conditions like Parkinson's disease. These are also Class III medical devices, and experts believe the first product could launch in China within 2 to 3 years.
The UBS report stated that experts are optimistic about the growth prospects of the BCI market. They believe that with increasing product maturity and expanding application scenarios, the BCI market could achieve exponential growth within the next 5 to 10 years, potentially reaching a scale of hundreds of billions of yuan by 2030.
Regarding product pricing, non-invasive products have wide applications. According to experts, sleep monitoring products are priced around 10,000 yuan (single-user device), rehabilitation and mental health products range from 200,000 to 400,000 yuan, while products involving exoskeletons could cost millions of yuan.
Pricing for invasive and semi-invasive products will likely reference current deep brain stimulation (DBS) devices and epilepsy-related equipment. DBS electrodes typically cost around 10,000 yuan, with implantable devices priced between 200,000 and 300,000 yuan.
Experts pointed out that the annual number of DBS surgeries in China is relatively stable, at approximately 30,000 to 50,000 procedures. Considering policy coverage and patient age, from the perspectives of affordability and willingness to pay, the potential coverage for semi-invasive and invasive BCI products could be broader than that for products targeting Parkinson's or epilepsy.
Therefore, if the pricing for semi-invasive and invasive products is comparable to DBS devices, their market size could exceed that of the traditional DBS market. This assessment provides an important reference for investors evaluating the market potential in this sector.
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