CMB International has released a research report announcing a 16.8% reduction in the target price for XPENG-W's Hong Kong-listed shares, lowering it from HK$113 to HK$94. Concurrently, the target price for its US-listed shares was also adjusted down to $24, with a "Buy" rating maintained for both. The bank revised down its forecasts for adjusted net profit (excluding share-based compensation and non-cash tax benefits) for 2026 and 2027 by 59% and 37%, respectively, to 900 million yuan and 2.3 billion yuan. This adjustment reflects lowered sales projections and increased research and development expense forecasts.
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company's revenue increased 38% year-over-year to 22.3 billion yuan, reaching a record high and surpassing the bank's forecast by 5%. This outperformance was attributed to better-than-expected revenue from technology R&D services for Volkswagen and carbon credit sales. The automotive gross margin was 13%, which was 1.3 percentage points lower than the bank's forecast, while selling, general, and administrative expenses, as well as R&D costs, were slightly above expectations. However, bolstered by high-margin R&D service income, the consolidated gross margin for the quarter reached a record 21.3%. The operating loss was the smallest in history, resulting in the company's first quarterly profit.
The bank anticipates a return to net loss in the first quarter of 2026 due to a weaker sales outlook. Nonetheless, XPeng's export target for 2026 has been raised to 90,000 units, exceeding prior expectations. Considering the weak first-quarter sales performance, the bank has lowered its full-year 2026 sales forecast to 540,000 units. Supported by contributions from four new models, particularly two Mona SUVs, and exports, sales in the second half of the year are expected to nearly double compared to the first half.
The report suggests that the mass production of humanoid robots in the second half of 2026 could serve as a catalyst for share price appreciation. According to the bank's supply chain channel checks, XPeng plans to produce 2,000 units of its "Iron" robot by the end of 2026. The company has previously guided for an annual sales target of 1 million humanoid robots by 2030, which could potentially double its revenue. The bank's current forecasts for 2027 only include a minimal contribution from robot revenue.
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