Huw Pill, the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, expressed on Monday that the central bank's move from a single forecast to multiple scenarios in its communication makes it harder for interest rate decision-makers to reach a consensus, echoing concerns voiced by other policymakers.
The Bank of England ceased publishing a single central economic forecast in April this year, instead providing three different scenarios. Starting in 2025, it will also include in its meeting minutes an explanation from each Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member regarding their individual vote.
"By moving to scenario-based forecasting, I think we tend to encourage MPC members to focus on their own views, to try to set their own scenarios, somewhat at the expense of the collective committee view, which ultimately drives the decision," Pill stated during a panel discussion hosted by the central bank of Uzbekistan.
Pill's remarks align with comments made last week by several other MPC members, including Megan Greene and Alan Taylor. Greene, alongside Pill, voted to raise the Bank of England's key interest rate from 3.75% to 4%. Taylor, on the other hand, is at the opposite end of the committee's policy stance, voting with the majority to keep borrowing costs unchanged.
In the record of the June policy decision, Pill noted that raising borrowing costs would help the MPC confront the "significant uncertainty" regarding how businesses and households are responding to higher costs and reduced purchasing power.
In a separate interview with the UK news agency PA Media published on Monday, Pill said he is concerned that other policymakers have become overly complacent about inflation remaining persistently above the central bank's 2% target.
"I am a little bit concerned that, because we saw inflation go up to 11%, the policy discussion might become: 'Oh, 3% inflation isn't so bad'," Pill told PA Media.
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