Abstract
Total SA will publish its quarterly results on February 11, 2026 Pre-Market; investors are watching revenue, margins, and EPS trends as consensus implies softer top-line momentum with mixed profitability drivers across upstream, LNG, refining, and integrated power businesses.Market Forecast
Consensus forecasts indicate a sequentially smaller top line for this quarter, with revenue estimated at $21.86 billion, an EPS estimate of $1.79, and EBIT projected at $6.20 billion; year over year, the forecasts imply a decline in revenue of 59.94% and a slight decrease in EPS of 1.76%. Margin expectations are cautious given lower revenue and mixed commodity strips; while explicit gross and net margin forecasts are not provided in the consensus, investors expect margin resilience to hinge on refining cracks, LNG realization differentials, and disciplined cost control.Main business highlights point to a revenue mix led by Refining & Chemicals and Marketing & Services, supported by Exploration & Production cash generation, with Integrated LNG and Integrated Power still smaller in absolute revenue but relevant for valuation and medium-term growth. The most promising segment for structural growth remains Integrated Power, where last quarter revenue was $4.39 billion; near-term growth indicators are tied to project ramp-ups and contracted volumes, while year-over-year comparables are expected to be uneven due to price effects and commissioning schedules.
Last Quarter Review
Total SA’s previous quarter delivered revenue of $48.69 billion, a gross profit margin of 37.98%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $3.68 billion with a net profit margin of 8.40%, and adjusted EPS of $1.77, reflecting a year-over-year EPS increase of 1.72% and revenue down 6.40%. A notable financial highlight was the quarter-on-quarter net profit increase of 37.07%, demonstrating improved profitability versus the prior period despite a softer top-line backdrop.The company’s main business lines showed a diversified revenue base: Refining & Chemicals generated $28.13 billion, Marketing & Services $15.73 billion, Exploration & Production $10.28 billion, Integrated Power $4.39 billion, and Integrated LNG $3.58 billion, with intercompany eliminations of $18.31 billion and a $0.04 billion corporate line; volume and pricing dynamics varied by segment, with refining margins and retail throughput offsetting upstream price headwinds.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Refining & Chemicals and Marketing & Services
Refining & Chemicals and Marketing & Services remain the core revenue engines and stock-price anchors for this quarter. With last quarter’s combined revenue contribution exceeding $43.86 billion before eliminations, investors will look to refining crack spreads and petrochemical chain margins to gauge gross profitability resilience. For Marketing & Services, retail fuel volumes, non-fuel retail, and geographic pricing mix will influence realized margins and cash conversion, especially if crude and product prices remain in a narrow band.Short-cycle sensitivity is high in Refining & Chemicals, so unplanned outages, maintenance schedules, and regional crack spreads can shift margins quickly. On the cost side, efficiency initiatives and feedstock optimization should mitigate pressure from any narrowing spreads, although petrochemicals can face margin compression if naphtha prices firm while end-demand wavers. Marketing & Services, while lower margin per unit than refining, can deliver stable cash flow through volume stickiness and pricing discipline, supporting aggregate net margin stability even as revenue is forecast to decline year over year.
Most promising business: Integrated Power and energy transition adjacencies
Integrated Power posted $4.39 billion in revenue last quarter and is positioned as a longer-dated growth vector for earnings quality and multiple expansion. The business is driven by renewable generation, power trading and optimization, and customer energy solutions; near-term revenue can fluctuate with power prices and trading conditions, yet incremental capacity additions and contracted offtake support visibility. In this quarter, commissioning progression and resource availability should underpin output, while power price normalization could temper top-line growth against the strong comps sometimes seen during volatile periods.The strategic rationale centers on diversifying cash flows away from commodity-heavy cycles and leveraging scale in origination, trading, and customer solutions. While the near-term EPS contribution is smaller than legacy operations, the segment’s margin improvements and capital-light expansions can gradually lift returns. Investors will focus on how the earnings mix evolves—any commentary on capacity additions, power purchase agreements, and trading performance could influence sentiment disproportionally to current revenue weight.
Key stock-price driver: Integrated LNG cash generation and portfolio realizations
Integrated LNG, with last quarter revenue of $3.58 billion, can materially affect quarterly cash generation and earnings given its sensitivity to spot and index-linked gas prices, contract lag structures, and portfolio optimization. Seasonal demand patterns, Asian spot LNG prices, and European storage dynamics may drive realized prices and margins; even modest shifts in spreads can meaningfully impact EBIT given the capital intensity and leverage to volumes. This quarter, investors will assess whether contracted volumes and destination flexibility optimize earnings against a backdrop of normalizing gas prices and regional divergences.Operationally, uptime at liquefaction assets and shipping availability are crucial short-term variables. Portfolio optimization, including timing of cargos and regional arbitrage, can add incremental margin even when headline prices soften. Any updates on project ramp-ups, long-term offtake contracts, or cost discipline in the LNG chain will shape the market’s view of medium-term earnings durability from this segment and could offset softness expected in consolidated revenue.
Analyst Opinions
Recent broker commentary skews moderately bullish for the upcoming print and near-term trajectory. Among the latest ratings within the six months ending February 04, 2026, multiple institutions have reiterated positive views: RBC Capital maintained a Buy with a €70.00 target, UBS reaffirmed Buy with targets around €61.00–€62.00, J.P. Morgan reiterated Buy with a €58.50 target, and Citi maintained Buy, while several other houses (Erste Group, Scotiabank, TD Cowen, and Kepler Capital) remained on Hold. Counting the collected opinions, Buy ratings are the majority relative to Hold ratings, indicating a constructive stance toward Total SA’s equity story ahead of results.The bullish camp emphasizes resilient free cash flow through cycles, disciplined capital allocation, and a balanced portfolio that combines upstream cash engines with growing exposure to LNG and Integrated Power. Analysts pointing to Buy ratings highlight that net profit improved sequentially last quarter while EPS held firm year over year, suggesting cost and margin management are offsetting macro softness in revenue. The view also underscores that this quarter’s forecasted revenue decline of $21.86 billion versus the prior-year period embeds conservative commodity and margin assumptions; if refining cracks stabilize above trough levels and LNG realizations meet or beat portfolio averages, upside to EBIT of $6.20 billion and EPS of $1.79 is achievable.
From an execution perspective, bullish analysts favor the company’s emphasis on high-return projects, measured downstream capacity utilization, and a methodical scale-up in power. They argue that even as the revenue line shows a year-over-year decline, the mix shift toward higher-margin barrels and midstream optimization can sustain net margins near recent levels. Additionally, the medium-term earnings optionality in Integrated Power is viewed as underappreciated in valuation frameworks that focus primarily on near-term commodity sensitivity—positive updates on new capacity and contract backlog could catalyze sentiment.
The Hold cohort points to near-term earnings pressure and macro variability as reasons to stay neutral into the print, foregrounding uncertainties around petrochemical margins and power price normalization. However, with positive ratings outnumbering neutral stances in our collected set, the prevailing market interpretation leans towards stability and measured upside. The consensus majority expects Total SA to navigate this quarter’s top-line headwinds with disciplined operations and a diversified cash flow base, keeping the equity narrative intact even if revenue growth remains subdued.
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