Just days into the 2026 World Cup, Goldman Sachs has updated its championship prediction model. The host nation, the United States, delivered a surprising 4-1 victory over Paraguay, exceeding expectations and emerging as the biggest "dark horse" of the opening stage. Spain, meanwhile, continues to top the list of favorites.
In its latest report, Goldman Sachs notes that after incorporating the opening match results and the latest changes in Elo ratings, its model—based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations—shows Spain with a 24.7% probability of winning the title, significantly ahead of traditional powerhouses like France, Argentina, and Brazil.
This model has previously successfully predicted the performances of teams like Germany and Spain. Its core framework integrates team Elo ratings, player ability, historical records, and tournament pathways, running large-scale simulations to project match outcomes.
However, the World Cup is no stranger to upsets. In 2022, Argentina was not the top favorite at the start but ultimately lifted the trophy, while several highly-fancied European giants were eliminated early. Goldman Sachs also emphasizes that each match will dynamically affect a team's Elo rating and progression path, meaning championship probabilities will be continuously adjusted.
For now, Spain remains the team closest to the trophy, while the United States, with its emphatic opening victory, has already become one of the tournament's biggest surprises.
Initial Match Analysis and Probability Shifts
The most significant variable from the opening match came from the host, the United States.
Goldman Sachs did not anticipate such a scoreline for the US team before the match, but they ultimately defeated Paraguay 4-1. Forward Balogun scored two goals and is the only US player factored into the model's "individual scoring ability" variable. This match resulted in a net gain of 54 Elo points for the US team.
The model subsequently raised the US team's probabilities for advancing in later stages. Currently, the probability of the US reaching the round of 16 is 61.8%, the quarter-finals is 30.6%, the final is 3.3%, and the championship probability has risen to 1.1%.
Top Contenders Remain Unchanged
Despite the United States being the most impressive team on the opening day, Goldman Sachs's model has not altered its fundamental assessment of the championship landscape.
Data shows Spain remains the top favorite to win the tournament, with a probability of 24.7%. France follows in second place at 17.4%, and the defending champions Argentina are third at 15.0%. They are followed by: Brazil (7.9%), England (5.3%), Portugal (5.2%), Germany (5.1%), and the Netherlands (4.9%).
In other words, the Goldman Sachs model suggests there is nearly a 60% chance the champion will be one of Spain, France, or Argentina. Looking at the probability of reaching the final, Spain is at 36.4%, France at 27.4%, and Argentina at 27.6%, forming a relatively clear top tier.
Regional Outlook and Home Advantage
Compared to previous World Cups, the Goldman Sachs model offers a relatively more positive outlook for Asian teams.
South Korea is seen as Asia's most competitive team, with a 49.3% probability of reaching the round of 16 and a 0.2% chance of winning the title. Iran has a 31.7% chance of reaching the last 16, and Japan a 30.9% chance. However, from a championship perspective, a significant gap remains between Asian teams and the traditional European and South American powerhouses, with no Asian team currently having a championship probability exceeding 1%.
As the first World Cup jointly hosted by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, North American teams generally benefit from a home advantage. Although Canada was held to a draw by Bosnia and Herzegovina in its opening match, it still has a 44.5% probability of reaching the round of 16. The United States, following its opening victory, has further solidified its qualification prospects.
Goldman Sachs believes that familiar environments, shorter travel distances, and the support of home fans are becoming significant advantages for the North American teams.
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