XPeng: Meet The Chinese Competitor Of Tesla

seekingalpha2021-02-22

Summary XPeng is one of the major electric vehicle manufacturers in China that has the potential to create substantial shareholder value in the near-term. XPeng, along with other EV manufacturers, ...

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Comments

JWZ137
2021-02-23
JWZ137
Hold
MATRIXTAY99
2021-02-23
MATRIXTAY99
中國人支持中國股，同胞們站起來買小鵬吧！
- 伟士杰:
  ？？？
JulianAlson
2021-02-22
JulianAlson
Getting more and more so which to choose in themarket?
Teckbee
2021-02-22
Teckbee
Certainly it’s just the beginning!
ctanya
2021-02-22
ctanya
Sounds compelling
35a510b1
2021-02-22
35a510b1
Go

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Despite being significantly overvalued by traditional valuation metrics, XPeng along with other EV manufacturers have experienced a surge in deliveries in recent quarters and as a result, there's a high chance that they'll continue to trade at high premiums in the foreseeable future. For that reason, we decided to buy XPeng shares ahead of its earnings in early March and plan to hold our position in the company as long as the overall industry momentum holds.\nPreparing for an All-Electric Future\nXPeng is a Chinese-based EV manufacturer that's headquartered in Guangzhou. The company was founded in 2014, currently, it has ~3700 employees, and it went public in the second half of 2020. With backing from Alibaba (BABA) and other major banks in China, XPeng along with its competitors NIO (NIO), BYD (OTCPK:BYDDF) (OTCPK:BYDDY), and Li Auto (LI) are some of the hottest names in the electric vehicle business in the region. As a result, its stock has significantly appreciated in late 2020 and currently, it outperforms S&P 500 Index on a 1-year chart.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nXPeng's first car is an SUV called G3, the production of which began in 2018. The car in its basic package could drive around 300 kilometers on one battery charge, while a higher package has a greater battery capacity and could drive more than 400 kilometers on a single charge. The price of G3 varies on the package and in China its price starts at ~$21000 and goes all the way up to ~$29000. XPeng's second car is a sedan called P7 that was released last year and which is a direct competitor ofTesla's(TSLA) Model 3. P7's price in China varies from ~$33000 to ~$50000, and in January, the carreceiveda major over-the-air upgrade that added new features such as autonomous driving assistance and an updated operating system.\nIn early March, XPeng will release its Q4 and FY20 earnings results, so for now we have to deep dive into the company'sQ3results to find out what's going on with the business. In Q3, XPeng significantly increased its revenues by 342.5% Y/Y to $293.1 million. Revenues from the vehicle sales were $279.6 million, while revenues from services were $13.6 million. At the same time, the company's non-GAAP EPS was -$0.32, while its net loss stood at $169.2 million. Despite the loss, XPeng increased the number of its supercharging stations to 135 and managed to increase its deliveries during the period by 265.8% Y/Y to 8,578 units.\nIn addition, one of the biggest advantages of XPeng is that it doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet since at the end of Q3 ithad$2.65 billion in cash reserves and only $347 million in total debt. Also, the company's financials have been improving in recent quarters and at the end of Q3, its gross margin was 4.6% against -2.7% a year ago, while its vehicle margin was 3.2% against -10.8% a year ago. Thanks to such an improvement, the street analysts have upgraded their outlook on the company, and its currentconsensusprice target is $57.95, above the current market price.\nNevertheless, the biggest downside of XPeng is that it'sprojectedto generate less than $1 billion in revenues in 2020 and around $2 billion in revenues in 2021, yet its stock trades at a market cap of ~$35 billion. Since it's hard to justify the current valuation, it's safe to say that we're in the middle of an EV bubble, as other EV manufacturers are also significantly overvalued and worth more than traditional automotive behemoths that produce millions of cars every year. As a result, if XPeng experiences a decline in deliveries at any given time, then there's a risk that the street will lose faith in its ability to drive growth and as a result, its stock will tumble. The good thing is that that hasn't happened yet and there's no reason to be concerned about it at this stage.\nThe reality is that XPeng is in its growth phase, so the market doesn't really care that the company is not going to be profitable anytime soon or that it trades at a significant premium. As long as XPeng continues to increase its deliveries and expand capacity, then it has all the chances to appreciate in the same way that Tesla appreciated in recent years. Currently, the goal of XPeng is to continue to expand and it plans to release two additional electric vehicles in the next two years. In addition, it plans to finish its second factory in Guangzhou in late 2022, which will help it to increase its annualcapacityfrom 100,000 cars to ~250,000. Since the demand for EVs is only going toincrease, XPeng's growth story will continue and the momentum is unlikely to fade away anytime soon.\nThe downside of XPeng is that in FY20 itdelivered27,041 cars, while its competitors NIO and Li Auto delivered 43,728 and 32,624 cars, respectively. However, we shouldn't forget that XPeng's flagship sedan P7 went into production only in the summer of 2020 and that the company experienced a bump in deliveries only late in the year. In Q4 its deliveries increased by 303% Y/Y to 12,964 units, while in December alone deliveries increased by 326% Y/Y. In addition, considering that in January alone XPeng alreadydelivered6,015 cars, which represents an increase of 470% Y/Y, there's every reason to believe that the company will catch up to its competitors in 2021, and thanks to its strategic market positioning it has all the chances to deliver more cars than the rest this year.\nConsidering that the full earnings results for Q4 and FY20 will be released in early March, there's every reason to believe that the EV momentum will not disappear and XPeng will be able to appreciate in the near-term despite the overvaluation thanks to the growth of its deliveries. Therefore, despite all the risks, we decided to purchase the company's stock and plan to hold it for a while, since shorting any EV name at this stage is too risky due to the growth of investments in the electric vehicle field.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":369666327,"gmtCreate":1614040472769,"gmtModify":1704887188168,"author":{"id":"3575067142498671","authorId":"3575067142498671","name":"JWZ137","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/842968796125e5a418b21a3b4ab603ef","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575067142498671","idStr":"3575067142498671"},"htmlText":"Hold","listText":"Hold","text":"Hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369666327","repostId":1174514335,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":369802031,"gmtCreate":1614012616123,"gmtModify":1704886994832,"author":{"id":"3568958827641736","authorId":"3568958827641736","name":"MATRIXTAY99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab7901224dae33cb86d800e2ab493489","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3568958827641736","idStr":"3568958827641736"},"htmlText":"中國人支持中國股， 同胞們站起來買小鵬吧！","listText":"中國人支持中國股， 同胞們站起來買小鵬吧！","text":"中國人支持中國股， 同胞們站起來買小鵬吧！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369802031","repostId":1174514335,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":3634862,"gmtCreate":1614021458625,"gmtModify":1680777904098,"authorId":3557179409284092,"author":{"id":3557179409284092,"idStr":"3557179409284092","authorId":3557179409284092,"name":"伟士杰","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":369802031,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"？？？","text":"？？？","html":"？？？"}],"langContent":"CN"},{"id":369307539,"gmtCreate":1614002833621,"gmtModify":1704886734369,"author":{"id":"3575352038769618","authorId":"3575352038769618","name":"JulianAlson","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4f9fadbfd2a54fe54a080c1732d41f9","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3575352038769618","idStr":"3575352038769618"},"htmlText":"Getting more and more so which to choose in themarket?","listText":"Getting more and more so which to choose in themarket?","text":"Getting more and more so which to choose in themarket?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369307539","repostId":1174514335,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":369945307,"gmtCreate":1614001110709,"gmtModify":1704886703890,"author":{"id":"3575420065240386","authorId":"3575420065240386","name":"Teckbee","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f156067aa7b580a64673cf2e93b9ac","vip":1,"crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575420065240386","idStr":"3575420065240386"},"htmlText":"Certainly it’s just the beginning!&nbsp;","listText":"Certainly it’s just the beginning!&nbsp;","text":"Certainly it’s just the beginning!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369945307","repostId":1174514335,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":369935354,"gmtCreate":1613996268878,"gmtModify":1704886625279,"author":{"id":"3569468280944828","authorId":"3569468280944828","name":"ctanya","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1422b7be4dfbf8a517d6f3557e4f567","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3569468280944828","idStr":"3569468280944828"},"htmlText":"Sounds compelling","listText":"Sounds compelling","text":"Sounds compelling","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/369935354","repostId":1174514335,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":360761580,"gmtCreate":1613979972440,"gmtModify":1704886387765,"author":{"id":"3566178178524951","authorId":"3566178178524951","name":"35a510b1","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566178178524951","idStr":"3566178178524951"},"htmlText":"Go","listText":"Go","text":"Go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/360761580","repostId":1174514335,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":68,"commentSize":59,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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