Industrial Securities Co., Ltd. released a research report forecasting 2026 as a potential cycle of synchronized growth for oil and bulk shipping, with a strong recommendation for the tanker sector.
On the demand side, tankers benefit from robust tailwinds, as declining crude prices are expected to sustain restocking demand. With OPEC+ continuing production increases, the firm maintains optimism about sustained high freight rates in 2026. Supply-side constraints are evident, with a significant option for fleet scrapping and persistently high vessel prices suppressing new capacity additions, indicating a tightening trend. Geopolitical instability, including sanctions and conflicts, may drive short-to-medium-term freight rate spikes, warranting investor attention.
For dry bulk shipping, Guinea’s Simandou iron ore project, which commenced production in November 2025, alongside rising bauxite exports, is projected to extend shipping distances and boost demand. Post-conflict reconstruction in regions like Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine could further elevate dry bulk demand.
Key takeaways by Industrial Securities: - **Container Shipping**: Supply-demand dynamics are expected to loosen. Weak consumer demand in Europe and the U.S. weighs on container shipping, while Southeast Asia’s emerging markets drive long-term growth for China-ASEAN routes. With potential Red Sea navigation resuming in 2026, fleet release risks loom. The aging container fleet (average age: 14.10 years) and projected capacity expansions (329.39M TEU in 2026, 344.41M TEU in 2027) suggest prolonged freight rate declines.
- **Tanker Sector**: OPEC+ production hikes support demand recovery. Since August 2025, tanker rates have rebounded sharply, with VLCC-TCE hitting nearly $100k/day by October—a post-2020 high. Supply remains constrained: the fleet’s average age (14.07 years), 20.57% over-20-year-old vessels, and modest orderbook (13.29% of existing capacity) highlight scrapping pressures amid U.S. sanctions and environmental regulations. Crude tanker capacity is forecast at 468M dwt (2026) and 482M dwt (2027), with tight supply sustaining rate resilience.
- **Dry Bulk Sector**: Simandou’s ramp-up and bauxite exports underpin demand growth. Fleet aging (average age: 12.78 years) and low orderbook (10.26% of fleet) signal accelerated scrapping. Conservative estimates project dry bulk capacity at 1.067B dwt (2026) and 1.103B dwt (2027), with rate recovery likely.
Risks: Operational hazards, trade war resurgence, and oil price volatility.
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