In the futures market, the live hog 2701 contract closed at 10,145 yuan per ton, up 150.00 yuan per ton, or 1.50%, from the previous trading day.
On the spot side, the price of lean-type live hogs in Henan stood at 9.79 yuan per kilogram, down 0.15 yuan per kilogram from the prior session, with a spot basis of LH01 minus 355, a change of 300 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, the price was 9.70 yuan per kilogram, down 0.11 yuan per kilogram, with a basis of LH01 minus 445, a change of 260; in Sichuan, the price was 9.34 yuan per kilogram, down 0.11 yuan per kilogram, with a basis of LH01 minus 805, also a change of 260.
According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Wholesale Price Index for Agricultural Products stood at 112.00 on October 21, up 0.22 points from the day before, while the "Vegetable Basket" Wholesale Price Index came in at 111.64, up 0.25 points.
The national average wholesale price of pork was 15.76 yuan per kilogram, down 0.6% from the previous day; beef was 72.81 yuan per kilogram, down 1.0%; mutton was 67.32 yuan per kilogram, down 1.5%; eggs were 9.48 yuan per kilogram, down 0.9%; and dressed chicken was 17.02 yuan per kilogram, down 1.2%.
Live hog spot prices are moving in a weak, range-bound fashion, with declines seen broadly across the country. Farmers continue to bring more hogs to market, and overall supply remains on an increasing trend. End-user demand shows no clear improvement, cured meat stockpiling is still in its early warm-up phase, and wholesale pork movement is sluggish, giving slaughterhouses a stronger incentive to push prices down.
In the near term, the market is likely to stay weak, though farmers' resistance to lower prices is expected to build gradually. Should rigid demand recover slowly going forward, it could help provide some support to prices.
The strategy is neutral.
The key risk is a concentrated wave of market-ready hogs.
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