The United States has escalated strikes against Iranian oil tankers in recent days, triggering a cycle of retaliatory attacks between the two nations. On the 9th, Iran condemned the US assault on its vessels, claiming to have responded by striking two American warships and eight oil tankers, along with ten other vessels deemed in violation of maritime rules. The US military's Central Command swiftly denied any damage to its naval ships in a subsequent social media post.
On the same day, President Donald Trump stated he anticipates the conflict with Iran will conclude shortly after the US midterm elections in November. Simultaneously, the US Energy Information Administration raised its oil price forecasts for this year and next, citing accelerated global inventory drawdowns driven by the ongoing tensions.
Iran Claims Retaliatory Strikes on US Warships and Tankers
The US Central Command reported on the 8th that American forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to an attack on a US warship. In a statement, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared it had retaliated by striking two US warships and eight oil tankers, as well as ten additional vessels that had violated regulations. The US Central Command later denied that any of its naval vessels had been targeted by Iranian fire.
Iran's Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 9th condemning the US attack on its ships, asserting that Tehran's armed forces had struck American military bases and facilities in the region and carried out "defensive strikes" on several US vessels. The statement emphasized that Iran's military would show "no hesitation" in exercising its legitimate right to self-defense and would respond decisively to any form of military aggression.
Why Washington Targets Iranian Tankers
The US has pursued a strategy of striking Iranian oil tankers, aiming to achieve multiple objectives. According to Li Zixin, a Middle East expert at the China Institute of International Studies, the approach serves three key purposes. First, Washington seeks to directly link tanker strikes with the protection of its own warships, creating a deterrent narrative rooted in reciprocal escalation. US Central Command General Michael Kurilla has made clear that if Iran fires missiles at American vessels, the US will destroy three Iranian tankers in return, using disproportionate force to discourage further attacks.
Second, the strategy aims to cripple the transport capacity of Iran's "shadow fleet," using economic strangulation instead of ground escalation to maximize pressure without crossing Iran's territorial red lines. Third, by continuously eroding shipping capacity, the US ensures that even if a deal is eventually reached, Iran would face years of recovery, thereby compelling Tehran to make concessions in any final negotiations.
Trump Expects Conflict to End After Midterms
On September 9, President Trump told reporters he expects the campaign against Iran to conclude following the November midterm elections. "We are not seeking negotiations with Iran," he said. "As soon as the election is over, the war will come to an immediate end." Regarding oil prices, Trump acknowledged that a "big fall" in prices could take longer than the midterm timeframe, but he reiterated his belief that prices would drop sharply once the conflict concludes.
Due to the impact of the Iran conflict on global inventories, the US Energy Information Administration raised its oil price projections for 2026 and 2027. The agency now forecasts Brent crude spot prices to average around $91 per barrel this year and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $84.65 per barrel, both roughly 5% higher than previous estimates. On the 9th, international crude futures continued their upward climb, with Brent breaking above $100 per barrel for the first time in six weeks and WTI surpassing $95 per barrel, reaching highs not seen since early June.
Tehran Repeats Conditions to End the Conflict
At a press briefing on the 9th, IRGC spokesman Brigadier General Ramazan Sharif warned that Iran now possesses strong countermeasure and deterrence capabilities. "If the enemy attacks two or three of our targets, Iran will respond forcefully by striking 20 enemy targets," he said. Sharif outlined the conditions for halting the current confrontation: a complete cessation of military operations and abandonment of renewed threats; the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon; lifting the blockade on Yemen; the unfreezing of $24.4 billion in Iranian assets; and stopping interference in Iran's nuclear and missile development programs.
Sharif also announced the establishment of a new maritime "sanctions zone" extending from Iran's southeastern port of Chabahar into parts of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, with specific coordinates to be released later. Any vessel entering this zone would be denied maritime, insurance, and related support services, and would also face restrictions on future navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding the strait, Sharif reiterated that no advanced technology could breach Iran's multi-layered surveillance system, citing the capture of an advanced US unmanned underwater vehicle at the entrance of the waterway. US Central Command spokesperson Tim Hawkins said the vehicle had malfunctioned over a day earlier and was not carrying sensitive data or classified equipment.
UN Calls for Full Navigation Rights in Strait of Hormuz
According to UK sources, preliminary shipping data from vessel tracking firm Kpler showed that only six commercial ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz on the 8th, down from nine the previous day and below the daily average of about twelve over the past ten days. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed deep concern over the escalating situation in and around the strait, urging all parties to exercise maximum restraint and fully restore and respect the right to navigation and freedom of passage in accordance with international law.
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