Opinion: Wall Street’s ‘Big Lie’: Performance claims that are increasingly straining credulity

MarketWatch2021-05-12

So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. Small lies ...

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Terence晓李
2021-05-12
Terence晓李
Pls like and give response
alod
2021-05-12
alod
Pls comment thanks
- YuckyBeans:
  Comment
- Vonz:
  up
- 牛与熊:
  Ok
hawtness
2021-05-12
hawtness
like and commeent
- alod:
  done. pls comment too
Penholder
2021-05-12
Penholder
Like and comment please thank u!
- LXM_:
  like
- Lsjlsjlsj:
  like oooo gogogogo
LXM_
2021-05-12
LXM_
Like x Comment
- Penholder:
  [Happy]
Traditional
2021-05-12
Traditional
Be honest with urself. U know what's happening ard the world.
- me168:
  [惊讶]

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Small lies ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page\">Source Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-streets-big-lie-performance-claims-that-are-increasingly-straining-credulity-11620680630?mod=home-page","article_id":"1174599088","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174599088","pubTimestamp":1620814183,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"lsy1603348471595","name":"MarketWatch"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of ma","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"marketwatch.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"en","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"translate_title":"观点：华尔街的“弥天大谎”：业绩宣称越来越让人轻信","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9},"content_text":"So you think it’s easy to multiply your money 10 times?I’m referring to a propaganda technique of making claims so outrageous that people think there must be some grain of truth to them. 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Extend that holding period to the last five years, in contrast, and the return at the top of scoreboard is a lot lower, at 33% annualized.This declining trend continues as holding period lengthens, as the chart shows. By the time we’re focusing on the last 40 years, the best return is now 14.0% annualized.Don’t think that this pattern is unique to the investment newsletter industry. Almost identical results emerge for mutual funds and hedge funds as well.The best documented long-term return that I know of was produced by the private Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies. Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reports that this fund produced a 39.2% annualized return (after fees) between 1988 and 2018, in contrast to 10.0% annualized for the S&P 500 index That fund’s return is so much better than that of anyone else on Wall Street that Cornell has confessed to have been “dumbfounded;” he said the return is the functional equivalent of the “sun rising in the west.”And, yet, notice that the Medallion Fund’s return that so strained credulity was “just” 39% annualized. That’s a long way from an “easy” 100x return in a cryptocurrency.If you’re a baby boomer, you already know and accept these lessons. If you’re from Gen Z, in contrast, the school of hard knocks has yet to teach you those lessons too.I devoted a column a month ago to this correlation between age and risk-taking in the latter stages of a bull market. Until the youngest investors suffer through their first major bear market, they are fearless risk takers, convinced that making money is easy. Investors of a more advanced age, who have lived through one or more severe bear markets, are older and wiser.This contrast was borne out yet again in a recent report from GamblersPick, a website that reviews online casinos. The website surveyed 872 investors about their risk tolerance; the respondents were almost equally divided between the four generations listed in the table below. (The balance of those not reflected in the table’s percentages indicated that they were “neutral,” neither risk tolerant nor risk averse.)GenerationRisk-tolerantRisk-averseGen Z57%25%Millennials49%32%Gen X38%44%Baby boomers and older36%46%In my experience, no amount of academic education (“book learning”) can fully substitute for what gets learned from actually living through a bear market. And that means that today’s risk-tolerant younger investors will themselves someday become the old fuddy-duddies that the rest of us appear to be today.In the meantime, they—and the market—are skating on thin ice. Though we don’t know how the bull market’s story will unfold over the next several months, we do know how it will eventually end.It’s not a happy one.","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":193717923,"gmtCreate":1620819990762,"gmtModify":1704348867689,"author":{"id":"3581927915574260","authorId":"3581927915574260","name":"Terence晓李","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e8d9808cf14bb44e2fa7aa64dbe611","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3581927915574260","idStr":"3581927915574260"},"htmlText":"Pls like and give response","listText":"Pls like and give response","text":"Pls like and give 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and commeent","listText":"like and commeent","text":"like and commeent","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193796624","repostId":1174599088,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4302741,"gmtCreate":1620817687368,"gmtModify":1680788327683,"authorId":3581595172436790,"author":{"id":3581595172436790,"idStr":"3581595172436790","authorId":3581595172436790,"name":"alod","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfd3f29585ed00df555c839652af67bf","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":193796624,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"done. pls comment <u>too</u>","text":"done. pls comment <u>too</u>","html":"done. pls comment 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honest with urself. U know what's happening ard the&nbsp;world.&nbsp;","listText":"Be honest with urself. U know what's happening ard the&nbsp;world.&nbsp;","text":"Be honest with urself. U know what's happening ard the world.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/193798699","repostId":1174599088,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":4314127,"gmtCreate":1620905240918,"gmtModify":1680788531441,"authorId":3575026186751523,"author":{"id":3575026186751523,"idStr":"3575026186751523","authorId":3575026186751523,"name":"me168","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fc5fc5548281c1c080272bc0d22b9193","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":193798699,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[惊讶]","text":"[惊讶]","html":"[惊讶]"}],"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":32,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":true,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"ttm","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/1174599088"}