CICC's research report indicates that the food and beverage industry has entered a new normal this year, with weak overall consumption sentiment persisting. The sector continues to prioritize cost-performance ratios, functionality, health benefits, and emotional consumption trends.
The baijiu industry has maintained weak demand amid regulatory changes, leading to significant adjustments in both supply and demand. Mass-market food products showed mixed performance, while beverages and snacks demonstrated relatively better momentum.
Looking ahead to 2026, the industry is expected to continue its weak recovery with strong differentiation. Growth will increasingly depend on product innovation, fragmented channel strategies, and consumer base expansion. Companies with strong branding, innovation capabilities, channel control, and superior supply chain efficiency will outperform and achieve high-quality growth.
Key takeaways from CICC: 1. **Baijiu Sector Improvement Expected in 2026** – Financial statements may bottom out, with a potential inflection point in H1. Policy impacts on demand will gradually fade, and consumption scenarios should steadily recover. Pro-consumption policies may drive demand, leading to year-on-year growth from a low base. Supply-side innovation will focus on expanding incremental demand, with inventory risks largely resolved. More companies will adopt online channels like instant retail.
2. **Mass-Market Food Stabilization with Divergence** – Demand is expected to stabilize at low levels, with potential policy stimulus supporting a mild recovery. Cost-performance, health-focused, and emotional consumption trends will persist, benefiting snacks and soft drinks. Leading companies will emphasize operational quality, likely achieving moderate revenue recovery and margin improvement through efficiency gains.
**Risks**: Slower-than-expected demand recovery, raw material price volatility, and intensified competition in sub-sectors.
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