Global capital continues to pour into the commodity markets, with its flow rapidly becoming highly concentrated. According to market analysis, J.P. Morgan's global commodity research report released on January 27 indicates that the total value of open interest in global commodity markets has climbed to a record high, driven by large-scale capital inflows for the third consecutive week and rising prices for precious metals and natural gas. In the week ending January 23, 2026, the estimated value of open interest in global commodity markets increased by nearly 6% week-over-week (an addition of approximately $101 billion), reaching $1.83 trillion. The report notes that this round of expansion was primarily driven by a combination of sustained net capital inflows and price increases, with precious metals and agricultural products emerging as the most concentrated destinations for capital.
Capital flowed into commodities for the third consecutive week, with precious metals and agricultural products showing the most significant attraction. The precious metals sector was the absolute main force behind the capital inflows that week. The net inflow into global commodity futures markets, measured by contract value, was approximately $36 billion, and was highly concentrated among asset classes. The precious metals sector recorded a net contract inflow of $21.5 billion, with gold attracting about $15.8 billion in net inflows, significantly higher than silver, platinum, and palladium. On the price front, the report shows that gold prices rose about 8% during the week, while silver prices surged about 14%, creating a positive feedback loop with capital flows. Consequently, by the week ending January 23, the open interest value in the precious metals market surged by 16% week-over-week (an increase of about $59 billion) to $433 billion, making it the single largest contributing sector for the week. J.P. Morgan's commodity strategy team pointed out that while precious metals investor positioning is nearing a cyclical high, the structural logic for gold remains relatively clear; they continue to favor gold over silver.
Silver remains susceptible to sudden, disruptive pullback risks. Although such volatility could have some contagion effect on gold prices, this would primarily be repriced through a rebound in the gold-silver ratio, thereby offering buying opportunities for gold, which continues to possess a clearer and more bullish structural logic.
Energy & Agriculture: Weather Dominates Natural Gas, Broad Inflows for Agriculture In the energy market, the value of open interest increased by 4.8% week-over-week (a $32 billion increase) to $700 billion. Within this, the crude oil and refined products markets saw net contract inflows of approximately $8 billion, as short-term supply disruptions continued to support prices against a backdrop of temporarily easing geopolitical risks. In contrast, the natural gas market exhibited "price-driven expansion." The report notes that despite a net outflow of around $2.5 billion in contract terms for natural gas that week, U.S. Henry Hub natural gas prices skyrocketed about 70% in a single week due to persistent cold spells in North America and Europe, still pushing the open interest value significantly higher. The report indicates that European natural gas storage levels are lower than historical averages for this time of year, and the rebound in heating demand are key factors behind the rapid price increase.
The agricultural sector also attracted capital favor. Data shows that the open interest value in global agricultural markets rose 2.4% week-over-week to approximately $337 billion. This growth was driven by a net contract inflow of $8.9 billion across the entire sector, with price increases in grains, oilseeds, and livestock markets offsetting price declines in soft commodity markets.
Base Metals: Rising Copper Inventories Pressure Fundamentals The open interest value in base metals markets grew 2% week-over-week to $258.4 billion. However, from a capital flow perspective, the sector overall showed a net outflow trend (outflow of $400 million). Although copper and lead recorded capital inflows of $2 billion, this was offset by outflows of $2.4 billion from other metals within the sector. J.P. Morgan analysts expressed caution regarding elevated copper prices, noting that fundamentals are becoming more challenging. The report mentioned: "Ahead of the Chinese New Year (February 17), inventory builds are higher than normal, and COMEX/LME arbitrage at the front of the curve has reversed." Overall investor positioning stabilized, but structural adjustments were evident. Looking at investor net positions, as of January 20, the net long position in global commodity futures markets was approximately $195 billion, remaining largely flat compared to the previous week. Structurally:
The net long position in precious metals remained high at around $130.6 billion;
The energy sector remained in a net short position, but the short size narrowed to approximately $9.6 billion, mainly influenced by improved positioning in European natural gas;
Net long positions in both base metals and agricultural products declined slightly.
The report also cautioned that short-term momentum indicators for some commodities are approaching "overbought" territory, suggesting that buying momentum may slow down temporarily.
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