Spot gold prices stabilized near all-time highs as global investors monitored escalating tensions in Venezuela and awaited U.S. inflation data. Platinum, which has been on a strong upward trajectory, extended its rally with a 4% intraday surge, trading at levels not seen since 2008—just $320 below its record peak. A combination of macroeconomic tailwinds could propel platinum to a historic high after 17 years.
Both gold and platinum have benefited from heightened geopolitical risks and expectations of Fed rate cuts, which signal looser liquidity conditions. Platinum group metals also face a supply-demand imbalance—the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a third consecutive annual deficit in 2025. Historically, sustained platinum gains tend to drive gold higher, suggesting gold could maintain its upward momentum. Some analysts even speculate gold may reach Wall Street’s coveted $5,000 milestone by 2026.
Spot gold traded around $4,335/oz, up 0.8% on Wednesday, just $50 shy of its October peak. Thursday’s inflation data will be closely watched for clues on further Fed easing. Market consensus expects slowing inflation, reinforcing bets on rate cuts. Gold has surged nearly two-thirds this year, on track for its best annual performance since 1979, fueled by central bank purchases and a broad retreat from sovereign debt and fiat currencies.
The Fed’s recent triple rate cut—a boon for non-yielding precious metals—has sparked mixed signals from officials about 2026 policy. While futures traders price in two 2026 rate cuts (50 bps total), Rabobank strategist Philip Marey predicts more aggressive easing (75 bps by September 2026) to stimulate the economy ahead of U.S. midterm elections.
Geopolitical tensions, including U.S.-Venezuela military standoffs and Israel’s ceasefire violations, have bolstered safe-haven demand. Supply constraints are driving platinum’s bull run, with spot prices doubling in 2025 amid robust demand. Platinum has rallied 18% since December 10, now 16.5% below its record high. Tight London inventories and strong Chinese imports—boosted by new futures listings in Guangzhou—underscore structural deficits.
"Platinum’s rally reflects dollar weakness, falling real yields, and industrial demand growth," noted Pepperstone strategist Dilin Wu, adding that auto sector demand remains resilient despite EV adoption due to stricter emissions rules.
Wall Street remains bullish: Goldman Sachs sees gold hitting $4,900 by late 2026, citing sustained central bank buying (70 tons/month) and private ETF inflows. JPMorgan projects $5,055/oz by Q4 2026, while Bank of America’s "$6,000 by spring" call hinges on "currency debasement trade" dynamics. With gold allocations still low (2.3% institutional, 0.5% retail), structural upside persists. At the LBMA conference, industry consensus pointed to $5,000 gold by October 2025.
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