Abstract
Oscar Health, Inc. will report its quarterly results on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus expectations for revenue, margin trajectory, net profitability, adjusted EPS trends, and institutional viewpoints from January 01, 2026 to February 03, 2026.
Market Forecast
For the current quarter, consensus derived from Oscar Health, Inc.’s forecast set indicates revenue of USD 3.12 billion, an adjusted EPS of USD -0.89, and EBIT of USD -221.87 million, with year-over-year changes of 26.23%, -50.45%, and -52.96%, respectively; gross profit margin and net profit margin guidance were not explicitly provided, though margin stabilization is implied by the company’s recent quarter trends. The main business is expected to be driven by premium before ceded reinsurance, with ongoing investment income and services contributing modestly; the most promising segment remains premium before ceded reinsurance, projected at USD 3.12 billion with year-over-year growth of 26.23%.
Last Quarter Review
Oscar Health, Inc. reported last quarter revenue of USD 2.99 billion, a gross profit margin of 13.38%, net profit attributable to the parent company at USD -0.14 billion, a net profit margin of -4.60%, and adjusted EPS of USD -0.53, with year-over-year changes of 23.21% for revenue and -140.91% for adjusted EPS. A notable operational highlight was stronger top-line growth, supported by premium expansion and steady investment income. Main business highlights: premium before ceded reinsurance reached USD 2.92 billion, investment income was USD 53.22 million, and services and other were USD 8.80 million.
Current Quarter Outlook
Premium Before Ceded Reinsurance
Premium before ceded reinsurance is the core revenue driver and is positioned to deliver another sequential step-up as membership and pricing initiatives flow through the earned premium base. The forecast revenue of USD 3.12 billion suggests management expects durable growth in the peak enrollment and early coverage period, which typically lifts earned premium in this calendar quarter. The pricing actions implemented for the coverage year, combined with product design intended for adverse conditions, should support a balanced trajectory of growth and loss ratios. Continuity of margin discipline—evident in the prior quarter’s stabilization—sets the expectation that underwriting results will not deteriorate, provided utilization trends remain in line with actuarial assumptions.
Services and Other
Services and other revenue remains a smaller but strategically relevant contributor to Oscar Health, Inc.’s overall profile. While the last quarter registered USD 8.80 million, the segment’s trajectory serves as a barometer for platform leverage and operational improvements embedded in the company’s care management and technology layers. Incrementally better operating efficiency here can yield meaningful downstream savings in medical loss and administrative expenses, even if the revenue contribution is minor. Given the company’s focus on product execution for the current coverage year, services could see a modest uplift from customer engagement initiatives and provider integration, though the scale in absolute dollars is far below premiums.
Investment Income
Investment income at USD 53.22 million last quarter provided a steady ancillary buffer to earnings, reflecting yield conditions and asset allocation within a conservative insurer portfolio. In the current quarter, investment yields may remain supportive, but the earnings impact will likely be secondary relative to underwriting and premium growth. Market-rate dynamics and portfolio maturity ladders can add incremental stability to reported results, yet consensus still points to a negative EBIT and adjusted EPS, indicating that underwriting margins and operating expenses are the crucial swing factors for the stock’s near-term performance.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock’s reaction is likely to hinge on medical-loss ratio signals, the sustainability of gross margin around the mid-teens, and evidence of operating leverage in administrative costs. Clear commentary on membership growth quality and utilization patterns, particularly around high-cost services, will inform whether the revenue growth translates into improved bottom-line resilience. The degree to which management’s pricing and product design for the current coverage year mitigates adverse selection will be scrutinized, especially since forecast EPS and EBIT remain negative despite strong top-line expectations.
Analyst Opinions
The collected institutional views over the last six months show a mixed stance with a notable bullish leaning: Piper Sandler upgraded Oscar Health, Inc. to Overweight citing effective product design and pricing for calendar year 2026, while Barclays maintained a Sell rating with a price target of USD 13.00. The upgrade implies confidence in execution against potential adversity, emphasizing that management’s rate filings and product architecture are built to withstand challenging utilization environments. The bearish case references valuation caution and profitability timelines; however, the upgrade by a recognized sell-side institution contributes to a majority-positive tilt in sentiment. The market will look for confirmation through reported loss ratios, margin resilience, and clarity on the path from premium growth to sustained profitability, which, if demonstrated on February 10, 2026 Pre-Market, could validate the bullish expectations.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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