Nvidia Stock Drops Ahead of Earnings, Ending Longest Win Streak Since March

Dow Jones08-21

NVIDIA Corp stock ended its six-day rally Tuesday. For now, the weakness looks like a blip in an otherwise impressive rebound from the shares’ August low.

Nvidia shares closed down 2.1% at $127.25. There was no specific development driving the stock lower, although the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite all closed slightly lower Tuesday as well.

The downturn ended a winning streak that lifted the stock by 23% in the six trading sessions through Monday. That was the longest series of back-to-back gains since a six-day run that ended March 25.

Despite Tuesday’s downturn, shares have rallied nearly 29% from their recent low of $98.91 on Aug. 7. The stock dipped below $100 following a report that shipments of Nvidia’s next-generation Blackwell chips may be delayed.

The recent rally didn’t bring shares back to their record highs, though. Nvidia stock is still down more than 6% from its June 18 closing price of $135.58.

The stock is up 157% this year through Tuesday’s close. That compares with a 17% rise in the S&P 500 index and a 19% gain in the Nasdaq Composite over the same period. 

The chip maker reports earnings next week. Nvidia benefits from spending on its chips by companies such as Microsoft, Amazon.com, and Meta Platforms, Inc. as they seek to build up their artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Investors will be watching the results to see whether the excitement over companies’ investments in AI technology is deserved and whether Nvidia’s customers will continue to spend.

So far, the signs still look promising. Technology-services company UST recently surveyed 600 senior IT decision makers in large companies with combined revenue of more than $10 trillion. In the survey, 89% said their organization would need to increase spending on AI implementation to keep up with competitors.

“One approach to take is…start small, essentially seed fund it and then grow your value and as you save money with AI invest it back in. What happens is you get a virtuous circle that allows you to essentially self fund your AI development,” Heather Dawe, head of responsible AI at UST, told Barron’s

Wall Street analysts and industry participants have also pushed back against fears of AI spending being unsustainable.

“We still expect better results/guidance as checks around AI remain solid, though we note near-term risks around a potential GB200 delay. For Data Center (now >85% of total revenue), AI demand continues to be helped by expanding hyperscale capex plans and commentary from players like Tesla suggesting sustained large GPU [graphics-processing units] purchases,” wrote Susquehanna’s Christopher Rolland in a research note. 

Rolland maintained a Buy rating and $160 target price on Nvidia stock. The analyst also said demand for Nvidia’s current generation H100 data center GPUs “remain very strong.” He cited how the top four cloud computing companies plan to increase capital expenditures by 45% in aggregate this year, which should help Nvidia’s results.

Still, shareholders might have to wait a little longer to see the fruits of such investment. On average, organizations expect to see a return on investment in AI technology in approximately two years, but almost a quarter expect it to take four or more years, according to the UST survey. 

That compares with Nvidia’s claim that data centers can earn $5 over four years for every dollar they invest in the company’s computing and networking products.

Among other chip makers, Advanced Micro Devices closed up 0.7%, building on gains of more than 4% the previous day when it announced its acquisition of server designer ZT Systems. Broadcom fell 1%. 

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    08-21
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