Vatee Wante: Bitcoin's Quarter-End Gains Still Await Final Confirmation

On September 29, Bitcoin held above $84,000 on Sunday, and the market began to focus on a quarterly performance that has not yet concluded.

According to a September 27 Investing report, Vatee Wante stated that the quarter-to-date gain at the time of the report was approximately 43.5%, reflecting a relatively large prior price recovery.

However, trading days remain in the quarter, and a stage-by-stage ranking cannot be treated as a finalized closing result.

From a trading structure perspective, Vatee Wante believes that the absence of obvious disorder in prices after the concentrated expiration of options is one clue for observing the market's capacity to absorb supply, but a smooth transition alone cannot be used to judge that volatility will continue to decline afterward.

The sustainability of spot trading volume, the pace at which profitable funds are realized, and new buying interest will all change the price elasticity and actual trading depth in the final days of the quarter.

A relatively large cumulative gain will change the cost distribution of holders.

Some participants may choose to realize profits, while others continue to hold, and the supply-demand balance formed by the two sides needs to be verified through trading.

Performance in the same quarter in history can provide a comparative reference, but it cannot prove that seasonal patterns are effective, let alone replace a specific analysis of current liquidity and leverage levels.

Different starting dates may also significantly change the return percentage, and comparisons should use a consistent basis.

The closer it gets to month-end, the more the observation window and statistical basis need to be clarified.

Vatee Wante believes that the price at the time of the report, the starting point of the quarter, and the final close should be recorded separately to avoid writing real-time changes as fixed conclusions.

If trading support weakens, even if the cumulative return remains prominent, short-term prices may fluctuate repeatedly, and what is more worth watching going forward is how the gains are digested by the market.