With European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde announcing her early departure, the contest to become the next ECB chief has entered a decisive phase, with candidates from the Netherlands and Spain currently leading the pack, while the field could still widen.
As Lagarde prepares to step down next February, eurozone member states may aim to reach agreement on her successor before the end of this year. This would form part of a broader personnel arrangement that also involves the positions of Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel.
While ECB presidential candidates have already been lobbying governments across Europe for support, the real negotiations are only now beginning. Governments want the next ECB president not only to steer inflation back to the 2% target, but also to navigate a complex geopolitical landscape and safeguard financial stability amid bond market turbulence and massive artificial intelligence investment.
Below is an overview of the main frontrunners as well as some relatively less-favored candidates.
Pablo Hernandez de Cos
According to a survey of analysts, former Bank of Spain Governor and current Bank for International Settlements head Pablo Hernandez de Cos is the top contender to succeed Lagarde as ECB president. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez publicly backed de Cos in September, saying he possesses "the leadership, capability and knowledge required for this role." Although Sanchez may lose in the snap election on November 29, the potential victor — the center-right People's Party led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo — has also expressed support for de Cos.
De Cos began his career at the Bank of Spain in 1997. His successor, current Bank of Spain Governor José Luis Escrivá, said in September that de Cos is expected to receive strong backing from other eurozone countries. Escrivá stressed that although de Cos is "not the only" candidate, he enjoys "considerable support."
If the dovish-leaning de Cos leaves the BIS, it would create another senior vacancy in the global central banking system. However, this could pose reputational risks for the BIS, and the position might consequently be filled by a non-European, factors that could both become obstacles to de Cos's bid for the ECB presidency. De Cos's predecessor was Mexico's Agustin Carstens.
Klaas Knot
The Dutch government backed former Dutch central bank chief Klaas Knot in August to compete for the ECB presidency, making him the first formally announced candidate to succeed Lagarde. Dutch Prime Minister Rob Jetten said in September that Knot would be a "very suitable choice" for "many European countries." Knot also previously served as chair of the Financial Stability Board, currently runs his own consulting firm, and remains active in global policy circles through attending various meetings.
Even so, some believe that a considerable amount of time has passed since he stepped down as Dutch central bank governor in mid-2025, which could be a disadvantage. Others point out that the Netherlands has already had someone serve as ECB president, namely Wim Duisenberg.
Knot was once widely regarded as a monetary policy hawk and occasionally clashed with then-ECB President Mario Draghi over his expansionary policies. However, Knot's stance has since softened. When the ECB was selecting Draghi's successor in 2019, he was seen as a potential compromise candidate before Lagarde ultimately won the role.
Knot said in October this year that economic and geopolitical shocks mean the ECB may need to adopt a slightly tighter monetary policy stance in the coming years. Bloomberg Economics' David Powell and Simona Delle Chiaie said: "Compared with de Cos, if Knot takes over, he may pursue a more restrictive monetary policy. In addition, he may be less active than de Cos in intervening in the French bond market."
Other Less-Prominent Candidates
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel was once considered by Berlin as its national candidate. He said that "every central bank official on the ECB Governing Council probably has the capability needed to take over," and that external candidates with "other backgrounds" also have a chance. Lagarde herself was also considered unlikely to win before receiving a surprise nomination.
Other names occasionally mentioned include Bank of Italy Governor Fabio Panetta, who served as an ECB Executive Board member from 2020 to 2023. Also mentioned is European Investment Bank President Nadia Calvino, a former Spanish deputy prime minister. Calvino has already ruled out running, saying she is "exactly where I should be right now." However, Lagarde made a similar denial just months before winning the ECB presidency, and political leaders may consider appointing a woman to the role.
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