A recent Goldman Sachs survey indicates a growing consensus among Wall Street investors that shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could persist into the second half of this year, reflecting a market gradually accepting the prospect of a prolonged global energy supply shock. The Marquee MarketView survey, which polled 837 institutional clients, found that most respondents expect the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz to continue beyond the end of June. Approximately 43% of those surveyed believe a return to normal shipping conditions may not occur until after July.
Concurrently, about one-third of respondents anticipate that
As one of the world's most critical energy transit chokepoints, the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Since the outbreak of conflict in late February, the waterway has effectively been in a state of partial closure. This supply disruption constitutes an unprecedented supply shock in the history of global energy markets.
Several major oil traders have previously warned that even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens in the future, the impact of the Iran conflict on the global energy supply chain could linger for months. Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is effectively facing a "dual blockade": on one hand, Iran continues to impede vessel passage; on the other, the United States restricts activities of vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports.
The Goldman survey also revealed that if the Strait of Hormuz resumes normal navigation in the future, the market's most favored trading strategy would be to "short crude oil," followed by going long on European and emerging market equities. However, despite recent market expectations for a potential easing of geopolitical tensions, the options market continues to see significant demand for downside protection, indicating traders are still hedging against the risk of a rapid oil price decline should U.S.-Iran relations suddenly improve.
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