The week of March 30th to April 5th features a lineup of significant financial events. All times mentioned are in Beijing Time.
The core themes for the upcoming week are as follows: First, macroeconomic data verification and geopolitical maneuvering. The US March non-farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's subsequent policy moves, while China's official PMI will test the strength of the post-holiday recovery. Simultaneously, the situation in the Middle East requires continued attention, with the G7 potentially meeting to discuss releasing strategic petroleum reserves, making oil price fluctuations a key focus. Second, industry transformation and rising price trends. The cancellation of VAT export rebates for products like solar panels effective April 1st is expected to pressure the industry to move beyond low-price competition and accelerate global capacity布局. On the same day, a wave of price increases hits the semiconductor and components sector, with major players including Texas Instruments, Infineon, and Murata raising prices across the board, signaling a recovery in industry chain sentiment. Finally, the domestic earnings season enters its peak period. The hard tech and AI sectors face a major earnings test, with key companies like Zhipu AI ("the first large model stock"), Biren Technology ("domestic GPU"), Zhongji Innolight (optical communication leader), as well as Seres and China Shenhua, set to release their reports densely, providing direct guidance for future market trends.
**Economic Indicators: US Non-Farm Payrolls and China's PMI**
**US March Non-Farm Payrolls Report** On Friday, April 3rd, the US will release the March non-farm payrolls report. Following an unexpected contraction of 92,000 jobs in February, the market generally expects a rebound to 55,000 new jobs in March. Bloomberg forecasts an addition of 80,000 jobs for March, driven by a rebound in positions after strikes ended, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.4%. Whether the US labor market can warm up will be a major point of observation. Additionally, on Wednesday, April 1st, the US will release the March ADP employment change figure. Serving as an important leading indicator for Friday's non-farm payrolls, this data will provide early clues about corporate hiring conditions.
**US March ISM Manufacturing Index** On Wednesday, April 1st, the US will publish the March ISM Manufacturing Index. The previous February reading was 52.4, and the current market expectation for March is 52.2, indicating a continued expansion in the manufacturing sector.
**China's March Official Manufacturing PMI** On March 31st, China's March official PMI data will be released. Reviewing February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed the manufacturing PMI at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. Analyst Wen Tao from the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing believes that in March, as the impact of the Spring Festival holiday largely subsides and temperatures gradually rise across regions, factories and construction sites fully resume work, and economic and social operations will return to normal轨道. Also on March 31st, China's March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI will be announced.
**South Korea's March Exports and Japan's Tokyo CPI** Boosted by strong global demand for semiconductors, South Korea's export growth is likely to have accelerated in March. Bloomberg estimates year-on-year shipment growth of 40.0% for March, higher than February's 28.7%. Furthermore, the Tokyo CPI for March will be released next week. Due to base effects from last year's surge in food prices (including rice), Tokyo's CPI inflation for March may have cooled. Bloomberg expects the core indicator (excluding fresh food) to rise 1.7% year-on-year, lower than the 2.0% increase in February.
**Financial Events**
**Continued Focus on Middle East Conflict; G7 May Discuss Oil Reserve Release** On March 30th, G7 finance and energy ministers and central bank governors are also holding a meeting to discuss the release of strategic petroleum reserves. Separately, according to reports from CCTV correspondents, on the local time of March 28th, information from the US side indicated that the US Department of Defense is preparing for a ground operation in Iran lasting several weeks. Officials stated that if President Trump approves the relevant plan, this move would mark a new phase in the war, with risks potentially significantly higher than in previous weeks. It is reported that thousands of US Army soldiers and Marines have already arrived in the Middle East region.
**Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration: Cancel VAT Export Rebates for Photovoltaic Products Effective April 1st** The Ministry of Finance announced that starting April 1st, 2026, the VAT export rebate for products like solar panels will be cancelled. From April 1st, 2026, to December 31st, 2026, the VAT export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%; starting January 1st, 2027, the VAT export rebate for battery products will be cancelled. Industry analysis suggests that cancelling export rebates, by exerting short-term pressure on exporting enterprises, will accelerate the activation of internal motivation for global capacity布局, thereby pushing China's photovoltaic industry to gradually move away from a "low-price involution" competition model towards a high-quality development track based on "technology pricing."
**Ant Group's Tender Offer for Yaocai Securities Expected to Complete** Ant Group is accelerating its entry into the securities business. Yaocai Securities Financial announced on Monday evening, March 16th, that the tender offer initiated by Ant Group has received approval from relevant Chinese authorities, completing the most critical regulatory step. The transaction is expected to be completed on March 30th, and the company's shares will resume trading on March 17th.
**Powell to Appear in Harvard's 'Principles of Economics' Class** According to the Federal Reserve's schedule, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will appear in a Harvard University 'Principles of Economics' class after the market opens on Monday to participate in a discussion event.
**French President Macron Visits Japan and South Korea** From March 31st to April 2nd, French President Emmanuel Macron will visit Japan and is expected to hold talks with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. From April 2nd to April 3rd, Macron will make a state visit to South Korea and hold a summit with South Korean President Lee Jae-myung.
**Speeches from Multiple FOMC Voting Members** On March 31st, permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President John Williams will deliver a speech. On April 1st, 2028 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak on the US economy and monetary policy. On April 2nd, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver opening remarks at an event hosted by the bank.
**Qingming Festival Holiday and Spring Break Arrangements** The Qingming Festival holiday runs from April 4th to 6th. Additionally, cities including Chengdu, Nanjing, Suzhou, Changzhou, Yangzhou, Leshan, Meishan, and Shaoxing have officially announced their spring break times, taking the lead in implementing relevant policies. According to regulations, the spring break is from April 1st to 3rd, connecting with the Qingming Festival, creating a six-day continuous break.
**Semiconductor Industry Price Hike Wave: Increases from Infineon, Texas Instruments, NXP Take Effect** The global semiconductor industry is brewing a new wave of price increases. Three major international chip design companies—Texas Instruments, NXP, and Infineon—have recently issued price adjustment notices to customers, announcing price increases for some products effective April 1st. Among them, price hikes for some Texas Instruments products could reach up to 85%. Increases for Infineon's mainstream products are expected to be between 5% and 15%, with adjustments for some high-end products potentially higher.
**Batch Price Hikes by Passive Component Companies: World's Largest MLCC Supplier Murata Raises Prices Up to 35%** Passive component giant Murata has formally proposed price increases, initiating comprehensive price hikes for MLCC products used in AI servers and high-end automotive applications, with increases ranging from 15% to 35%. The new price system will take effect on April 1st (based on order receipt date). Additionally, Mitsubishi Gas Chemical announced a 30% price increase for all CCL, Prepreg, and CRS products effective April 1st. Yageo issued its third price increase notice: raising prices for tantalum capacitor products effective April 1st.
**Domestic Route Fuel Surcharge Confirmed to Rise on April 5th** Spring Airlines issued a notice stating that for tickets sold from 00:00 on April 5th, 2026 (based on booking time), the domestic route fuel surcharge will be raised. Specific adjustments will be detailed in subsequent notices.
**Companies Including Yueyang Forest & Paper and Baoshan Iron & Steel Announce April Price Hikes** Paper: 1. Yueyang Forest & Paper issued a price increase letter, effective April 1st, raising the order acceptance price for its paper bag paper series, composite series, and functional packaging paper series produced on machines 3, 6, and 7 by 200 RMB per ton from the current price. 2. Chenming Paper will increase the price of its white cardboard series products by 200 RMB per ton effective April 1st, 2026. Steel: 1. Baoshan Iron & Steel's recently released price adjustment letter indicates that it will uniformly raise the base price for over ten varieties including hot-rolled steel, pipes, and wire rods by 200 RMB per ton in April. 2. Angang Steel's recently released price adjustment letter indicates a uniform base price increase of 200 RMB per ton for over ten varieties including hot-rolled steel, pipes, and wire rods in April. 3. Bengang Steel's recently released price adjustment letter indicates a uniform base price increase of 200 RMB per ton for over ten varieties including hot-rolled steel, pipes, and wire rods in April.
**Indonesian Finance Minister: Nickel and Coal Windfall Tax Could Take Effect April 1st if Government Approves** The Indonesian Finance Minister stated that a windfall tax on nickel and coal could be implemented on April 1st if approved by the government.
**vivo X Series Spring New Product Launch Event** The vivo X series spring new product launch event will be held at 19:00 on March 30th in Lijiang, Yunnan Province.
**XPeng: Company's Chinese Name to Change to "XPeng Group"** XPeng announced that effective April 1st, 2026, the company's Chinese name (for identification purposes only) will change from "Xiaopeng Motors Co., Ltd." to "Xiaopeng Group". The company's English name remains unchanged, still "XPeng Inc.". Starting from 9:00 am on April 1st, 2026, the Chinese stock abbreviation for the company's Class A ordinary shares traded on the Main Board of The Stock Exchange of Hong Kong Limited will change from "XPeng-W" to "XPeng Group-W".
**Earnings Reports** The peak of the domestic earnings season arrives next week. Key companies reporting earnings include "the first large model stock" Zhipu AI, GPU developers Biren Technology and Iluvatar CoreX, optical communication leader Zhongji Innolight, as well as Seres, China Shenhua Energy, PetroChina, AMEC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Gold International Resources, GigaDevice, and others. Companies such as AVIC Chengdu Aircraft, Bank of China, BOC Hong Kong, China Eastern Airlines, China Everbright Bank, China Gold International Resources, China Southern Airlines, GigaDevice, ZhiShiTuPu Technology, Midea Group, Nike, PetroChina, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry, SF Holding, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics, Tianshan Aluminum Group will also report earnings. Regarding IPOs, Wind data shows three new shares will be issued next week: one on the STAR Market, one on the ChiNext board, and one on the Beijing Stock Exchange, with a total issuance of approximately 185 million shares and expected total fundraising of 3.551 billion RMB. Specifically, SaiYing Electronics and Youyan Composite Materials will be issued on March 30th; Dapu Micro will be issued on April 3rd. A list of some A/H share financial report disclosure dates is also provided.
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