This report summary: Global market risk appetite continues to rise, which is favorable for the performance of equity assets. We tactically recommend overweighting A/H-shares, U.S. stocks, and gold, while underweighting U.S. Treasuries and crude oil.
Investment Highlights: Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, recommending an overweight position in A/H-shares. As the Central Economic Work Conference approaches and with 2026 marking the start of the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the broad fiscal deficit is expected to expand further, and economic policies are anticipated to become more proactive. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected in December, and the stable appreciation of the Renminbi provides favorable conditions for monetary easing in China in early 2026. Reforms are boosting risk appetite in the Chinese market. Chinese equities offer a relatively higher risk-return ratio compared to other major asset classes.
The gradual emergence of a "Goldilocks" backdrop is favorable for U.S. stock performance, recommending an overweight position. The U.S. economy demonstrates strong resilience, endogenous inflation stickiness is gradually weakening, investors continue to value the development trend of the AI industry, market risk appetite is moderately rising, and the "Goldilocks" backdrop is becoming more apparent. Corporate earnings expectations may still support an upward trend in the U.S. stock market.
The directional guidance of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy may be relatively cautious, recommending an underweight position in U.S. Treasuries. The continued cooling of the U.S. labor market, weaker energy prices, and slower wage growth favor a decline in endogenous inflation stickiness, broadening the scope for the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Given the strong resilience of the U.S. economy, the Fed's monetary policy guidance is likely to remain relatively cautious. The central tendency of U.S. Treasury yields is expected to decline moderately going forward, but their risk-return ratio is relatively low compared to risk assets.
Against a backdrop of significant geopolitical shifts, gold possesses strong resilience and safe-haven attributes, recommending an overweight position. Rising uncertainty in the global geopolitical landscape and continued gold purchases by central banks are conducive to supporting the long-term price level of gold. Although inflows of speculative trading funds have periodically raised gold's volatility and suppressed its safe-haven appeal, gold prices still exhibit strong resilience in an environment of volatile global risk assets and high speculation on the AI industry trend.
Short-term trading dynamics in crude oil may intensify, recommending an underweight position. Investor expectations regarding crude oil supply and demand are relatively aligned, and OPEC+'s production adjustment behavior has been relatively moderate. Geopolitical events in South America could amplify the U.S.'s influence on global oil prices, while the policy orientation of the Trump administration also leans towards lower oil prices. Crude oil prices are expected to remain under pressure and may face intense short-term trading fluctuations.
Risk提示: Analytical dimensions have limitations, model design involves subjectivity, historical and expected data may have deviations, market consensus expectations may adjust, and quantitative models have limitations.
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