For stock trading, rely on Jinlin Analyst Research Reports — authoritative, professional, timely, and comprehensive, helping you uncover potential thematic opportunities! Source: Huaxia Times. This newspaper's (chinatimes.net.cn) reporter Shuai Kecong and trainee reporter Pei Mengqi report from Beijing. If 1 million yuan had entered the A-share market on September 24, 2024, invested in Yuanjie Technology, two years later it would have appreciated to approximately 28.49 million yuan. If invested in Vanke A, two years later it would be approximately 440,000 yuan. At the same time, in the same market, under the same policy tailwinds, the difference is about 65 times.
In just two years, the A-share market completed a market capitalization increase of nearly 50 trillion yuan, a rise of nearly 60%. But this bull market, dubbed the "924 rally" by the market, was not a universal feast. The STAR Composite Index surged as much as 158.55% during the period, the communications industry soared 247.11%; meanwhile, 630 individual stocks declined, and stock divergence became increasingly pronounced.
Looking ahead, some say the "tech bull" will continue, while others say the policy dividend has "expired" and a new round of "stimulus" is needed.
The bull market is still ongoing
Rewinding the timeline to before September 24, 2024, starting from January 2024, the market gradually declined, and as of September 23, the STAR Composite Index had fallen more than 30%. On September 24, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on financial support for high-quality economic development. The central bank, the National Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly announced a series of major financial policies. The policy combination instantly ignited market sentiment.
From September 24, 2024, to October 8, 2024, the ChiNext Index rose 66.59%, the STAR Composite Index rose 56.85%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rose 42.19%. The A-share market experienced a significant valuation repair. Subsequently, the A-share market embarked on a new round of "bull market."
According to Tonghuashun iFinD data statistics, as of the close on September 24, 2026, the total market capitalization of A-shares reached 130.40 trillion yuan, while on September 24, 2024, the total market capitalization of the entire market was only 81.67 trillion yuan. Over the two years, the A-share market capitalization increased by 48.73 trillion yuan, a rise of nearly 60%, equivalent to creating "half an A-share market" beyond the original market.
From the perspective of index performance, the structural bull market characteristics are distinct. The STAR Composite Index led by a wide margin with a gain of 158.55%, the ChiNext Index rose 120.82%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 68.69%, the Tonghuashun All-A (weighted) Index rose 64.89%, and the Shanghai Composite Index recorded a gain of 43.20%. The trend curve shows that the market overall fluctuated upward. In mid-2026, the STAR and ChiNext indices surged to stage highs before experiencing significant pullbacks, but overall returns still substantially outperformed the main board indices.
Divergence at the industry level was even more extreme. The communications industry surged 247.11% during the period, ranking first in the entire market; the electronics industry followed closely with 201.80%. These two major tracks were the core mainlines of this rally. The conglomerates and non-ferrous metals industries rose 128.93% and 103.66% respectively, also achieving doubling-level returns. Traditional industry sectors performed relatively weakly, with banking and non-bank financial sectors rising only about 26% during the period; construction decoration, textile and apparel, and petroleum and petrochemicals rose in the 28%–31% range. Food and beverage was the only declining sector, falling 5.17% over the two years.
Stock divergence becoming increasingly pronounced
The divergence between sectors also transmitted to the individual stock level. Over the past year, the AI computing power industry chain created a batch of 10-fold "bull stocks." According to Tonghuashun iFinD data statistics, from September 24, 2024, to the close on September 24, 2026, excluding new stocks listed after September 24, 2024, and ST stocks, using the post-adjustment method, 1,388 stocks doubled, 133 stocks rose more than 500%, 25 stocks increased 10-fold, and 4 stocks rose more than 2,000%, namely Yuanjie Technology, Shangwei New Materials, Honghe Technology, and Dingtai Gaoke.
Among them, Yuanjie Technology ranked first among "bull stocks" with a gain of 2,748.05%. Some netizens estimated with "if you had 1 million": if you entered with 1 million yuan in real money on September 24, 2024, how much would it become by September 24, 2026? 1 million invested in Yuanjie Technology would appreciate to approximately 28.49 million yuan after two years; invested in Shangwei New Materials, it would become 27.03 million yuan after two years; invested in Dingtai Gaoke, it would become 25.53 million yuan after two years; invested in Honghe Technology, it would become 23.29 million yuan after two years. If the timeline were pulled back to June 5, the 1 million in Shangwei New Materials would have appreciated to 34.51 million yuan, and the 1 million in Honghe Technology would also have appreciated to 30.02 million yuan.
But most people in the market are still complaining that "retail investors can't make money." A stock investor who entered on September 24, 2024, told the Huaxia Times reporter that after two years, they had just "broken even." According to Tonghuashun iFinD data statistics, from September 24, 2024, to September 24, 2026, excluding new stocks listed after September 24, 2024, and ST stocks, a total of 630 individual stocks declined in the market. CITIC Bo and Wantai Biological fell more than 60% over the two years, while Vanke A and Sanxing Electric fell 45.74% and 46.31% respectively.
If on September 24, 2024, 1 million yuan had been used to buy CITIC Bo, Wantai Biological, and Vanke A respectively, then as of September 24, 2026, the 1 million yuan would have become 360,000 yuan, 310,000 yuan, and 540,000 yuan. At the same time, in the same market, under the same policy, stock divergence has become increasingly pronounced.
Yang Delong, chief economist and fund manager at Qianhai Open Source Fund, believes that structural divergence is an important feature of this rally. The technological innovation sector has relatively more upward opportunities, but many traditional sectors have declined, and some individual company stock prices have even fallen back to pre-"924" levels. This also indicates that against the backdrop of economic divergence, capital market opportunities are also divergent.
When will the next "924" rally arrive?
Some industry insiders say that the current domestic economic data backdrop is quite similar to that before the "924" rally. On the consumption side, personal consumer loan data has shown significant adjustments, and overall consumption has not seen substantive improvement; on the investment side, fixed asset investment growth continues to slow, and in addition, new RMB loans in July increased less year-on-year, with corporate demand deposits continuing to decline. These data trends are extremely similar to July and August 2024.
Regarding the investment mainline for the fourth quarter of this year, this industry insider said they remain bullish on the recovery of global AI hardware, with the AI sector shifting from valuation-driven to earnings realization. Huang Runan of Orient Securities believes that the key to the next phase of the "924" rally lies in whether the capital market can support technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and translate that into broader profit growth, and whether residents can obtain sustained and reasonable investment returns through equity assets. However, the capital market alone cannot solve the problems of industrial divergence, income and wealth divergence; it still requires the coordination of supporting mechanisms such as income distribution, social security, and long-term capital entry into the market.
Yang Delong believes that if the U.S. stock market does not experience a major decline but continues to rise, then the probability of A-share technology stocks starting a rally is relatively high. Although A-share performance has been relatively weak, driven by the strong advance of U.S. stocks, A-share technology stocks are expected to gradually recover. Of course, this also requires a gradual recovery of market confidence, because many investors have had their confidence greatly impacted after the sharp decline in the third quarter, and it takes time to regain confidence. Sectors such as chips, computing power, humanoid robots, commercial aerospace, solid-state batteries, and innovative drugs will rotate in the fourth quarter. Overall, there is hope for a new round of rally to begin.
Li Xunlei, chief economist of Zhongtai International, said in an interview with reporters at the Tsinghua PBCSF Chief Economist Forum on September 19 that the rally launched since September 24, 2024, especially the entry of the national team, is essentially support for the capital market. From a fundamental perspective, we are still facing a situation of "strong supply and weak demand," the internal circulation is not very smooth, the technology sector has grown substantially, but the situation in traditional industries is not very optimistic, especially real estate-related home appliances, cement, building materials, etc.
In Li Xunlei's view, if we want to change the current situation of "strong supply and weak demand," we still need a policy similar to "924," which is expected around the middle of next year. Specifically, it is still necessary to promote consumption, and the focus must also be on solving the debt problems of local governments. The "924" rally has already lasted two years, and the policies proposed at that time may now have gradually expired, requiring new stimulus.
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