Guojin Securities has released a research report forecasting HAIDILAO's (06862) operating revenue for 2026, 2027, and 2028 to reach 47.55 billion yuan, 50.25 billion yuan, and 53.11 billion yuan, representing year-on-year increases of +10.0%, +5.7%, and +5.7%, respectively. Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.60 billion yuan, 5.06 billion yuan, and 5.54 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year growth of +13.5%, +10.0%, and +9.6%. This corresponds to earnings per share (EPS) of 0.82 yuan, 0.91 yuan, and 0.99 yuan. The firm views HAIDILAO as a leading company in the catering industry, meriting an appropriate valuation premium. It assigns the company a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20x for 2026, resulting in a target price of HK$18.94, and issues a "Buy" rating. Guojin Securities' key viewpoints are as follows:
The resilience of this hot pot leader remains unchanged, with cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures proving effective. As a major domestic catering enterprise with extensive geographical coverage through a large number of outlets, the group operated 1,383 HAIDILAO restaurants as of the end of 2025, comprising 1,304 self-operated stores and 79 franchised stores. The company's attribute of delivering high returns to shareholders continues to be evident. According to its 2025 annual report, HAIDILAO proposed a final cash dividend of HK$0.384 per share. Combined with an interim cash dividend of HK$0.338 per share, and based on the closing price of HK$15.09 on May 12, 2026, the implied dividend yield is approximately 4.8%. The company is renowned for its high-quality ingredients, personalized service, and unique customer experience. Through a highly centralized equity structure and flat management, it enhances operational efficiency. The implementation of strategic initiatives such as the "Woodpecker Plan," "Hard Bone Plan," and "Pomegranate Plan" demonstrates the enterprise's robust operational resilience.
Amid a steady macroeconomic recovery, the hot pot sector exhibits strong growth. Benefiting from the continuous expansion of the industry's scale and increasing concentration among leading brands, HAIDILAO has established itself as a leader in the hot pot segment. Driven by steady domestic GDP growth and policies aimed at boosting domestic demand, China's catering consumption has become a significant driver of economic growth. As one of the more popular segments within the catering industry, the hot pot sector's market size is expected to reach approximately 650 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate surpassing the overall catering industry average.
Comprehensive competitive strength builds barriers, with an informatization strategy positioning the company for the future. HAIDILAO is actively constructing its unique corporate barriers by pursuing digital transformation, deploying core talent incentive policies centered on "aligning interests and locking in management," and solidifying its supply chain layout. Its independently operated supply chain system, which includes entities like Shu Hai Supply Chain and Yihai International, precisely empowers both upstream and downstream segments of the industrial chain. This approach lowers operational costs while simultaneously enhancing the company's own risk resistance capabilities.
The "Pomegranate Plan" drives growth, with its strategic direction aligning with demand trends. The company launched the "Pomegranate Plan" corporate strategy, aiming to encourage senior employees to incubate more new brands and explore new catering segments. It has already successfully launched several sub-brands, such as Yanqing Barbecue Shop, Jugaogao Self-Service Hot Pot, and Ruyi Sushi, which better align with current domestic catering consumption trends. The multi-scenario, multi-brand layout of the "Pomegranate Plan" broadens the company's future development space and also helps the group build a more diversified catering ecosystem.
Risk warnings include the company's store expansion pace falling short of expectations, catering business demand being lower than anticipated, and food safety issues.
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