Founder Securities Co.,Ltd. has released a research report indicating that the Zimbabwean government has proposed 11 conditions for lifting its export ban to promote the extension of the lithium industry. Key requirements include the construction of lithium sulfate plants by enterprises before 2027, the imposition of a 10% export tax, and the implementation of an export quota system. Currently, only a few companies possess the relevant capacity, making it difficult to meet the deadline, leaving room for negotiation regarding the resumption of exports. The report suggests monitoring investment opportunities arising from lithium carbonate prices remaining high and potentially breaking upward due to supply-side disruptions. The main views of Founder Securities Co.,Ltd. are as follows:
Zimbabwe's push for lithium industry extension introduces uncertainty into lithium resource supply. In April 2026, the Zimbabwean government issued an announcement to seven lithium resource producers in the country regarding conditions for resuming lithium ore exports. The government's ban on lithium concentrate exports, in place since March 2026, has now lasted over a month. This recent announcement marks the beginning of a negotiation period for the resumption of lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe.
The prerequisites for lifting the ban are numerous. The 11 preconditions set by the Zimbabwean government cover various aspects, including beneficiation facilities, the construction of lithium sulfate plants, a lithium concentrate export tax, lithium concentrate export quotas, and requirements related to enterprise management and information disclosure. The report believes the policy's aim is to encourage foreign investors to increase their investment in Zimbabwe, extend the downstream lithium concentrate industry chain, and thereby retain more of the benefits from lithium industry development locally. However, this policy objective will also lead to increased costs for local lithium resource development, extended investment payback periods, and introduce uncertainty to the supply of lithium carbonate resources.
Meeting the deadline for lithium sulfate plant construction is challenging, leaving room for further negotiation. Among the specific prerequisites, the construction of lithium sulfate plants is a particularly difficult requirement to fulfill, yet one the Zimbabwean government highly prioritizes. This demand was first raised in June 2025, and the government has consistently maintained its requirement for lithium mining companies to extend their industrial presence in Zimbabwe. The government requires companies to submit written commitments with clear timelines for building lithium sulfate plants, which must be completed by January 1, 2027. Furthermore, companies must submit monthly progress reports to a special committee established by the Zimbabwean government. Currently, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. has completed a 50,000-ton lithium sulfate project locally. Lithium sulfate plants for other companies are still in the planning or construction phases. The report considers that, given reasonable project construction cycles, it is unlikely that Zimbabwean enterprises will complete the construction of lithium sulfate capacity corresponding to all their lithium concentrate production by early 2027. This implies that negotiations between companies and the government are likely to continue, potentially leading to slower-than-expected production releases from new lithium mining capacities in Zimbabwe.
The addition of export quota management aims to standardize lithium concentrate export procedures. The preconditions include a 10% export tax on all lithium concentrate exports, and the government will issue approved lithium concentrate export quotas to production enterprises. The export tax rate for lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe was 5% in 2025, and increased starting in 2026. Regarding export quotas, considering Zimbabwe's lack of pricing power in the global lithium supply and the historical requirement for government permits to export lithium concentrate, the report views the export quota as a policy tool coordinated with the construction of lithium sulfate plants. Essentially, the government will grant lithium concentrate export quotas to enterprises that have beneficiation plants and have made clear commitments to build lithium sulfate plants. The report believes the government introduced export quotas to standardize the export process, but the quota system itself also introduces uncertainty to Zimbabwe's lithium resource supply.
Lithium concentrate inventories can help cushion the short-term impact of the export ban, but disruptions from resource nationalist policies cannot be ignored. The report suggests that if Zimbabwe resumes lithium concentrate exports in April, the impact on domestic raw material supply could be mitigated by the inventories accumulated at ports by various companies and traders. However, given the already low inventory levels of lithium salts domestically, if the resumption of Zimbabwean lithium concentrate exports is later than expected, the supply shock could still materialize in the second quarter. Furthermore, due to uncertainties surrounding the subsequent construction of lithium sulfate plants and quota management, the report believes there is potential for downward revisions to the expected global lithium resource supply growth in 2026.
The Gulf conflict, leading to high oil prices, enhances the strategic value of lithium battery new energy. Since the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, global oil prices have surged. Many countries, including Australia, are experiencing shortages in gasoline and diesel reserves. The report believes this will accelerate the global transition to new energy sources to reduce dependence on crude oil, thereby benefiting upstream energy metals, including lithium carbonate.
Investment recommendations focus on high-quality resource companies within the sector, such as Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd., Tianqi Lithium Corporation, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co., Ltd., Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.,Ltd., Dazhong Mining Co., Ltd., and Guocheng Mining Group Co., Ltd. Also, monitor the potential value reassessment of Zimbabwe-related lithium resource enterprises following the implementation of the export policies, such as Sinomine Resource Group Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd., Shenzhen Chengxin Lithium Group Co., Ltd., and Yahua Industrial Group Co., Ltd.
Risk factors include demand growth falling short of expectations under high lithium prices; global lithium resource capacity construction progressing faster than anticipated; and systemic risks arising from an unexpectedly severe escalation of the Gulf conflict.
Comments