Let's take a look back at the key events over the weekend and review the latest assessments from analysts at major securities firms.
Weekend Highlights
Wu Qing, Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, stated on November 14 at the 2026 China Capital Markets Academic Annual Meeting that the research on long-term mechanisms for market stability should be further deepened. The Chinese capital market has never been so highly interconnected and resonant with global capital markets as it is today. Facing a highly uncertain external environment and imported risks, there is a need to strengthen understanding of the periodic changes in global capital markets, the evolution of asset pricing logic, and the laws of risk transmission and linkage. It is necessary to further enhance research and response to cross-border, cross-market, and cross-industry risks, systematically build mechanisms for stability, forces for stability, and an ecosystem for stability, and effectively prevent abnormal market fluctuations.
Wu Qing also stated on the 14th that research on the micro-structure of the market should be further deepened. To further improve market pricing and development quality, in-depth research is needed to improve the capital supply structure and accelerate the development and expansion of long-term capital and patient capital. It is also necessary to study and improve expectation guidance mechanisms to reduce market volatility caused by "herd effects" and "short-term" trading. Furthermore, it is necessary to study and evaluate the optimization of institutional rules such as quantitative trading and share reductions, as well as fair and reasonable regulatory arrangements, to effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of investors.
Fed Officials Intensify Hawkish Rhetoric This Week
Federal Reserve officials delivered密集 speeches and gave media interviews, not only essentially locking in market expectations for a December rate hike but also prompting the market to consider the possibility that the Fed might raise rates at two consecutive meetings for the first time since 2023.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said that gradual rate hikes would be an appropriate way to reduce inflation. The labor market is gradually gaining footing without further exacerbating price pressures. Collins stated on Saturday: "I see price pressures broadening, and high inflation has persisted for a long time. For now, I think maintaining a steady, gradual path of rate hikes is appropriate, but I remain open-minded about it."
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said that inflation has become the most important indicator for monetary policymakers when considering further rate hikes. Jefferson noted that recent economic activity and labor market conditions have been solid, but price pressures remain persistent. October price data also indicated that inflation remains significantly above the Fed's target.
New York Fed President John Williams said: "The inflation level is simply too high." Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee described the data as "quite unsettling." Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said the Fed may need to raise rates "more quickly" than she previously expected. Fed Governor Christopher Waller even warned that a 50 basis point rate hike might be needed next month. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Friday that she currently leans toward the view that the Fed needs to raise rates further, especially as services inflation is moving in an unfavorable direction and signs of inflation persistence are increasing.
Witnessing History +1! SpaceX Successfully Completes "Chopstick Catch" of Starship for the First Time
In the early hours of Sunday Beijing time, the upper stage of SpaceX's Starship returned to Starbase in Texas on its fifteenth test flight. After completing its landing burn and flip maneuver, it was successfully caught by the "chopstick" mechanical arms on the launch tower. This is the first time SpaceX has successfully caught the Starship upper stage returning from Earth orbit.
Musk Signs Petition Supporting Huang Renxun's Reinstatement; 42,000 Signatures Collected
On November 13 local time, Musk called on Nvidia to bring Huang Renxun back to the company. Musk stated on social media that he is signing a petition demanding Huang Renxun's reinstatement. "A petition is currently being launched to demand the restoration of Renxun's position, and I am also signing the petition," Musk said on social media.
Top Ten Brokerage Latest Assessments
1. CITIC Securities: How Does the Current Capital Clearing Process Differ from the Past?
The capital clearing process after this round of market adjustment differs from the past in four ways: 1) In the past, market tops were often accompanied by a surge in active equity fund issuance, while this round is concentrated in subscriptions to certain existing products; 2) The structure with track and "fixed income plus" subscriptions as the main increment versus the structure with new fund issuance as the main increment leads to very different redemption behaviors after market adjustments. The current surge in "fixed income plus" is very similar to the surge in "new share subscription" products in 2015; 3) Since "September 24," a large amount of absolute return funds with low risk appetite and top-down allocation have flowed into the equity market, with risk control and stop-loss behaviors more decisive than those of fund investors and retail investors; 4) The scale base of long quantitative products is far larger than in the past, and future marginal changes in excess returns and scale may be very sensitive to market trading volume. A trend contraction in trading volume is a chronic damage to extremely high-valuation small and micro-cap stocks. Based on these capital characteristics of this round of market conditions, we expect that during this adjustment, the clearing speed of large institutional stocks will be much faster than in the past, and the slow clearing process of small and micro-cap stocks may have just begun.
2. CITIC Construction Investment Strategy: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back, Seize Year-End Recovery
The low point at the end of October is likely already the bottom of this round of the market. The "AIAE" indicator shows valuations are low, and November is the starting point for recovery, but the pace is more likely to be "two steps forward, one step back," with the slope of recovery still subject to certain constraints. Market stabilization policies have shifted from emergency support to mechanism building. Huijin's "quasi-stabilization fund," Guoxin Chengtong's "structural guidance," broad-based ETF inflows, and relending for buybacks and increases jointly build the lower bound. The position at the end of October can be regarded as a short-term bottom support reference. Overseas rate hikes, the Nvidia incident, and AI regulatory uncertainty raise risk premiums in the short term while strengthening the logic of self-controllability in the medium term. At year-end, attention should be paid to valuation switching: institutional positions are concentrated, and the odds of catch-up gains come from "underweight plus low crowding," while also positioning for cross-year themes. Industries to focus on: military, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, pharmaceuticals, banking, non-bank financials, utilities, etc. Themes to watch: AI short dramas, physical AI, domestic computing power, etc.
3. Hua'an Strategy: Oversold Rebound Has Setbacks but Is Not Over
Recent disruptive events include: first, AI restrictive legislation, which is extremely difficult to implement and has already been quickly priced in; second, the major management shake-up at Nvidia, which may affect the technology path but does not change the development trend and has also been quickly priced in. Considering the regulator's determination to stabilize the market, the APEC summit meeting, expectations for the Central Economic Work Conference, and other potential positives, coupled with the year-end performance ranking sprint by institutions and the trading consensus for a spring rally, the rebound, despite setbacks, is not over. In terms of allocation, the second phase of this industrial cycle is still advancing toward its end-stage accelerated uptrend, corresponding to the current oversold rebound. AI hardware remains the top choice for rebound elasticity. Additionally, strong alpha directions with prosperity or catalysts, such as AI applications and the agricultural product chain, can also be allocated. Continued reminder that dividend assets have relatively low cost-effectiveness amid market oversold rebounds and dividend yields digesting to critical points.
4. Guojin Strategy: The Darkest Hour Is the Brightest
The market's expectations for dollar tightening are rising, premised on the U.S. job market and economic growth continuing at high levels. However, judging from the new leasing commitment indicators of large cloud vendors, which are leading indicators for U.S. economic growth and the job market, the boost from AI infrastructure to U.S. employment and economic growth may slow in the fourth quarter. From the experience of the past year, a strong dollar has clearly suppressed the non-AI portion of Chinese assets. In the future, as the prosperity of emerging economies improves and dollar suppression is lifted, more opportunities will emerge in the non-AI sectors of Chinese assets.
5. China Merchants Strategy: Redemption, Discount, and Rate Hike Expectations—The Way of Attack and Defense Under Triple Liquidity Pressure
Recently, market volatility has increased. At the liquidity level, potential domestic fixed income position reduction suppresses the equity market, stock index futures discounts have hit historical extremes, and an overseas December rate hike has become the baseline scenario. On the industry side, overseas AI concerns lie in financing-side fragility and upstream EPS downward revisions. Looking ahead, we believe chips are still the first principle of the current market. It is necessary to defend first and attack later, waiting for flowers to bloom. In terms of industry allocation, maintain oversold rebound, cyclical stability, and dividend selection, with focus on semiconductors, industrial metals, coal, and banking.
6. Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy: Rebound Window Still Continuing
This week, the 2027 profit expectations for optical communication leaders were revised upward, providing an opportunity for a rebound upgrade, but the deep-seated impact of the Democratic sweep emerged, and the rebound upgrade was not realized. The rebound is still advancing along the original market characteristics: the time and magnitude of gains are limited, but the time for the market to stop making new lows is measured in months. Structurally, thematic rotation is the main source of opportunities. As rotation deepens, long forces will inevitably dissipate. In the short term, stabilizing capital market expectations is still in a critical period, and the rebound window remains. Major market bottoms are often marked by long-term cost-effectiveness clearing, but not necessarily complete clearing of high positions. Currently, there is a timetable for long-term cost-effectiveness clearing. Before complete clearing, there is still tail-end time/space for adjustment. The transition from unilateral adjustment to an active bottom theme phase may occur in the first half of 2027.
7. Everbright Strategy: Market Bottoming and Accumulating; Next Week's Important Meeting May Bring a Turnaround
In the short term, the market may enter a bottoming and accumulating phase. Currently, the core problem for the market is that the sustainability of AI capital expenditure cannot be disproven in the short term, and the elasticity of economic fundamentals is limited, so the index lacks conditions for a reversal. However, active support from medium- and long-term funds, continued strengthening of domestic market stabilization policies, and the APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting to be held in Shenzhen next week are expected to repair market risk appetite in the short term, potentially generating some phased rebound行情. Overall, the market will likely enter a bottoming and accumulating phase. Focus on three balanced allocation directions. Direction one: policy chain, namely布局 along key policy directions, covering infrastructure chain, real estate chain, consumption chain, and various sub-sectors. Direction two: hard tech tracks. Focus on semiconductors, AI, high-end manufacturing, and other areas with core technical barriers and domestic substitution logic. These sectors benefit from the upward global tech industry cycle and align with national technology innovation and self-controllability policy guidance, possessing strong growth certainty and valuation elasticity. Direction three: other sectors with bottom-up prosperity, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, pharmaceuticals, and non-bank financials. These industries rely more on their own fundamental logic to drive independent行情, not dependent on strong macro policy stimulus, and can provide certain excess returns amid market volatility.
8. Bank of China Strategy: Key Person's Departure May Restructure Global AI Competition Ecosystem
Huang Renxun's departure increases uncertainty on the overseas computing power supply side. Corresponding domestic substitution in A-shares, such as advanced packaging, storage, high-speed interconnection, semiconductor equipment and materials, may usher in opportunities. If Huang Renxun's departure leads to more cautious trial and error or slower iteration of Nvidia's new路线, upstream hardware manufacturers' capital expenditures may converge, and they will actively diversify their customer structures, opening share windows for AMD, Google TPU, self-developed chips, and domestic computing power. The domestic substitution of the chip chain ushers in development opportunities. Nvidia entering a management transition cycle means increased uncertainty in long-term planning, quota allocation, and technology iteration rhythm on the overseas computing power supply side. Domestic computing power procurement entities may further strengthen supply chain diversification demands, providing more implementation scenarios for domestic computing power chips such as Cambricon, Ascend, and Hygon.
9. Soochow Strategy: Short-Term Market May Be Volatile
In terms of rhythm, the next 1-2 weeks are event-intensive. The APEC meeting, Anthropic's IPO, Huang Renxun's closed-door briefing, and the Warsh hearing may all bring volatility. It is recommended to focus on structural opportunities. Specifically: sentiment in the overseas tech hardware chain is weak, mainly due to the repricing of the global AI narrative after the Huang Renxun departure controversy, coupled with hawkish U.S. AI control, damaging short-term logic in the overseas chain. However, the situation is not yet settled, and a repair is not ruled out; it is recommended to wait and see. After the "blue wave," the domestic chain logic is strengthened, and continued optimism for repair opportunities. The first collective divergence in AI applications is more of a trading-level issue; the industry narrative is not broken, and continued attention is recommended. In the medium term, continue to focus on low-position fundamental bottoming varieties (military, domestic demand such as baijiu); high-dividend, high-free-cash-flow dividend assets remain the decisive factor for absolute returns.
10. China Galaxy Strategy: Frequent Sector Rotation—How to Arrange Allocation Structure?
At the current point, the market is still in a process of volatile digestion and expectation repricing, and the行情 will likely unfold in a time-for-space manner. Leveraged positions have experienced a round of concentrated clearing, and transactional incremental funds need to wait for further market sentiment recovery and renewed money-making effects. Long-term fund布局 by insurance funds, annuities, and other long-term capital is an important force supporting the medium- and long-term bottom of the market. Market stabilization tools play a supporting role at key positions, consolidating the resilience of the operating range. Overall, downside risks for the market have somewhat converged, but upward space still requires observation of marginal changes in chips and funds. The focus of subsequent行情 may lie in structural opportunities from sector rotation.
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