美联储已经明确告诉股市：不要大涨

华尔街见闻2023-01-08

市场对美联储今年政策转向的押注不受政策制定者欢迎，只会迫使美联储把降低通胀带来的痛苦延续下去。美联储向市场传递了一个信号——如果股市大幅反弹，将大大延长经济痛苦的时间。美东时间周三下午，美联储发布了12月货币政策会议的会议纪要。纪要中提到，与会者指出，由于货币政策通过金融市场发挥重要作用，所以金融环境不合理的放松（unwarranted easing），特别是因公众误解（FOMC）委员会反应功能而...

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benben82
2023-01-08
benben82
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在周四的一份报告中表示，这份会议纪要清楚地表明，“众所周知的美联储看跌期权机制已经正式消亡”。周五，美股大涨，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.1%，标普500指数上涨2.28%，纳斯达克综合指数上涨2.6%；另外，美国12月非农就业报告显示，工资增长意外放缓，ISM服务业指数跌至收缩区间。一些市场观察人士想知道，美联储政策制定者会对市场的反应有何反应。目前，美债收益率继续下跌，市场对美联储2月1日加息25个基点的押注从有所提高。法国巴黎银行（BNP Paribas）经济学家 Carl Riccadonna、Yelena Shulyatyeva 和 Andrew Schneider 认为，这份非农就业报告在一定程度上缓解了美联储在2月1日加息50个基点的压力，但政策制定者似乎对市场定价越来越没有耐心，因为美联储与市场在联邦基金利率的峰值和首次降息时机方面存在分歧。牛津经济研究院首席美国经济学家 Ryan Sweet 在周三的一份报告中表示：会议纪要明确强调了美联储对通胀的关注，但也强调了他们对金融市场状况开始松动的不满，他们认为这阻碍了他们实现价格稳定的努力。从会议纪要中可以看出，美联储将冒着伤害劳动力市场和更广泛经济的风险降低通胀。Pantheon Macroeconomics 首席经济学家 Ian Shepherdson 也认为，美联储提到金融状况是为了传达一种信息，即投资者不应指望政策制定者在经济数据出现明显的重大转变之前，会放松通胀底线。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":9953381933,"gmtCreate":1673157387022,"gmtModify":1676538793518,"author":{"id":"3548412292431483","authorId":"3548412292431483","name":"benben82","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d5066411f8c70a09959487fa1c126ab","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3548412292431483","authorIdStr":"3548412292431483"},"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://ttm.financial/post/9953381933","repostId":1175436624,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":84,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":17,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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