Market participants are advised to keep a close watch on China-US relations. On the macro front, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council has unveiled the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan," scheduled to take effect from January 1, 2026. The plan aims to enhance the synergistic effects between domestic and international markets and resources while expanding the supply of high-quality goods. Accordingly, China will implement provisional import tariff rates, lower than the Most-Favored-Nation rates, on 935 categories of goods next year. The plan also optimizes tariff line items and domestic subheading notes, increasing the total number of tariff lines to 8,972. Overseas, former US President Donald Trump indicated he would announce his nominee for Federal Reserve Chair at an appropriate time, stating there is plenty of time; he criticized current Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the Fed's approach to renovating its building, and revealed he is considering suing Powell, alleging incompetence.
The Shanghai Composite Index closed in positive territory. In the spot market, the three major A-share indices closed mixed, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a ninth consecutive daily gain, rising 0.04% to close at 3965.28 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.66%. Sector-wise, most sector indices declined. The Oil & Petrochemicals, National Defense & Military Industry, and Banking sectors led the gains, whereas the Nonferrous Metals, Utilities, and Power Equipment sectors were among the top decliners. The daily turnover for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges exceeded 2 trillion yuan. Overseas, the three major US stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.51% to 48,461.93 points.
Stock index futures saw a reduction in positions. In the futures market, the basis for stock index futures retreated. Regarding trading volume and open interest, both the trading volume and open interest for stock index futures declined simultaneously.
In the pre-holiday market, ETF assets under management have shown a trend of continuous expansion, while overall stock positioning has concurrently decreased, creating a certain hedging effect. The market is expected to be dominated by oscillatory consolidation and recovery ahead of the holiday.
Risks remain that if domestic policy implementation falls short of expectations, overseas monetary policy proves more aggressive than anticipated, or geopolitical risks escalate, stock indices could face downward pressure.
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