Future industries represent the long-term direction of technological and industrial development. The outline of Sichuan Province's 15th Five-Year Plan specifies that over the next five years, the province will focus on eight future industry sectors, including sixth-generation mobile communication (6G), quantum technology, the metaverse, frontier biotechnology, brain science and brain-computer interfaces, hydrogen energy and controlled nuclear fusion, ultra-high-speed rail transit, and deep earth science, for systematic layout and preemptive efforts. How can the future of these industries be grasped? How can Sichuan use future industries to shape new advantages for economic development? What should be the entry points for Sichuan to focus on future industries?
Since 2026, financing in China's quantum technology industry has experienced explosive growth, with the total industry-wide financing in just the first quarter already exceeding the sum for the entire year of 2025. This has been widely interpreted by media as quantum technology accelerating its industrialization. So, how far along is the industrialization process of quantum technology? This forms the cognitive foundation for formulating relevant industrial policies, but obtaining a specific and credible answer is not easy—some public materials contain vague statements, such as "expected to achieve a key leap from technological breakthroughs to industrial application," while others are difficult to verify, such as at least dozens of companies publicly releasing quantum technology products or claiming to have secured commercial orders.
With these questions in mind, an interview was conducted with Guo Guangcan, one of China's pioneering and leading scientists in quantum research, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and a professor at the University of Science and Technology of China. Throughout the over-hour-long dialogue, he maintained the rationality and candor of a scientist, sharing his latest observations on the progress of quantum technology industrialization and offering strategic suggestions for industrial cultivation.
Guo Guangcan, from Quanzhou, Fujian, is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at the University of Science and Technology of China. He is one of the pioneers of quantum optics and quantum information science in China. He has long been engaged in teaching and research in quantum optics and quantum information, introducing the theoretical system of quantum optics to China and promoting the development of quantum information science in the country. He has received honors such as the Second Prize of the National Natural Science Award and the Ho Leung Ho Lee Foundation Prize for Scientific and Technological Progress.
Quantum Computing Most Likely to Bring Disruptive Change - Quantum computing is currently far from reaching the commercial stage; market development conditions will only be met once a universal quantum computer is developed. - The emergence of a universal quantum computer will free artificial intelligence from computational bottlenecks. - It is estimated that the universal quantum computer will be available in about 10 years.
Some viewpoints suggest that quantum technology as a whole is currently in the industrialization verification phase. This is roughly accurate but not precise enough, as progress varies across different application fields.
A recent McKinsey report estimates that by 2035, the combined global revenue of the three core application areas of quantum technology—quantum computing, quantum communication, and quantum precision measurement—will reach $97 billion, with quantum computing dominating at approximately $72 billion in annual revenue, followed by quantum communication and quantum precision measurement at $15 billion and $10 billion, respectively. Is this prediction reliable? I have not conducted research in this area. Considering the rapid development, it would not be surprising if this level is achieved by 2035. By then, the universal quantum computer should have emerged, so quantum computing will indeed dominate. Specific revenue figures are hard to predict, but quantum computing will indeed be the most widely applicable area within quantum technology and the one most likely to bring disruptive changes to human societal development.
What specifically does the "disruptive change" brought by quantum computing refer to? Essentially, it is a significant increase in computer data processing speed. Many industries that rely on computation will be disruptively affected. For example, computational power is a bottleneck in the current development of artificial intelligence. Moore's Law is approaching its limits, and humanity is nearing the ceiling of electronic computer development. The universal quantum computer could free AI development from computational bottlenecks and consume far less energy than electronic computers. Another example is drug research and development; whereas it typically takes years to screen a new drug, quantum computing could accomplish this in a much shorter time.
How significant is this increase in data processing speed? Public materials claim it is "far more than 10 or 100 times"—is it 1,000 times or more? It is exponential growth, 2 to the power of N, where "N" is the number of quantum logic qubits, the basic computational units of a universal quantum computer. A universal quantum computer requires at least 1,000 quantum logic qubits, resulting in a speed increase of at least 2 to the 1,000th power, an enormous number.
Regarding the progress of quantum computing industrialization, there are two public narratives: one suggests that quantum computing technology development is far from reaching the commercially viable stage expected by the market and is still transitioning from prototype verification to specialized simulator development; the other claims it has already achieved commercial application. Which is closer to reality? The former is more accurate. The statement "transitioning from prototype verification to specialized simulator development" is acceptable. Here, specialized simulators refer to quantum computing tailored for specific application scenarios, but they are not yet capable of computing anything like a universal computer. Indeed, some quantum computing products have been sold, but buyers are also using them for trial purposes, to verify feasibility and whether they can solve problems in their respective industries. Currently, quantum computers can compute some real problems, but these are problems that supercomputers can also solve. Quantum computing might solve them faster, but the computational advantage is not yet significant enough. Public encryption keys that electronic computers cannot crack remain uncrackable by quantum computers, so it cannot be said that quantum computers have comprehensively surpassed electronic ones. Considering factors like cost control, quantum computers are not yet suitable for large-scale commercial use. Only when a universal quantum computer is developed, capable of solving problems that electronic computers cannot, will it meet the conditions for market development. The good news is that AI technology is significantly advancing quantum computer research. Previously, it was estimated that 1,000 quantum physical qubits were needed to create 1 quantum logic qubit. Creating a universal quantum computer requires at least 1,000 quantum logic qubits, equating to 1 million quantum physical qubits. However, AI can now help scientists design optimized encoding schemes, greatly reducing the number of required quantum physical qubits. The latest research suggests that only about 20,000 quantum physical qubits may be needed to build a universal quantum computer.
With the assistance of AI technology, when can the universal quantum computer be expected? In about 10 years.
Quantum Precision Measurement Most Likely to Achieve Large-Scale Commercialization First - Quantum precision measurement is expected to achieve large-scale commercial application in 3 to 5 years. - Large-scale commercial application of quantum secure communication will take 5 to 10 years. - Labeling something as "quantum secure communication" and claiming absolute security is unscientific.
Among the three main application areas of quantum technology, which is most likely to achieve large-scale commercial application first? Quantum precision measurement, expected in 3 to 5 years. Its product prices and technical barriers are relatively lower, industrialization progress will be faster, and the application market will be very broad. The core of precision measurement is sensors. Currently, sensors are widely used across industries, and quantum sensors offer higher measurement accuracy and sensitivity. For example, sensors used in power grids might fail to detect minor but risky voltage fluctuations, whereas quantum sensors can; in the medical field, during early cancer development, some cancer cells are present in very small quantities in the body, undetectable by traditional means, but quantum precision measurement can identify them; in infrastructure inspection, quantum sensors can detect minor vibrations in bridges, enabling risk warnings and improving safety and reliability.
What is the current industrialization progress for these applications? Also, you mentioned that large-scale commercial use of quantum precision measurement is 3 to 5 years away. How should we view already released products? For quantum precision measurement, overall, it has entered the market trial phase. Quantum sensors are being trialed in real power grids; in the medical field, relevant teams are collaborating with hospitals in Beijing, Anhui, and elsewhere, and current trial results are promising, improving early screening accuracy for certain cancers like breast cancer. However, beyond effectiveness, whether products can be widely accepted by the market also depends on factors like lower prices and smaller sizes. If all requirements are met, with products that are both affordable and high-quality, the market will naturally open up. Efforts are ongoing. Currently, some products are being trialed by relevant units, but I have not yet seen products achieving large-scale sales.
Besides quantum computing and quantum precision measurement, the third major application area is quantum communication. The term "quantum communication" is commonly used, but it is actually incorrect because communication remains classical; it's just that traditional encryption keys were insufficiently secure, so we switched to quantum keys for encryption. Therefore, it should be called "quantum secure communication." Its core is using quantum properties to generate unbreakable keys to ensure the security of classical communication. Currently, there are two types of quantum keys: one uses physical methods, abbreviated QKD, distributing keys to communicating parties via quantum states. Any eavesdropping interferes with the quantum state, making it detectable, so the parties know the communication is insecure and discard it. The security of this method has been rigorously proven in theory. However, in practice, vulnerabilities may still exist, potentially exploited so that eavesdropping cannot be promptly detected. Therefore, using physical methods to transmit keys is not absolutely secure; only QKD with all vulnerabilities blocked and confirmed as free from eavesdropping can ensure communication security. The other uses mathematical methods, abbreviated PQC, employing complex functions for public keys so complex that even the strongest current quantum computing algorithms cannot break them. Thus, it is considered a quantum-resistant tool and can be deemed secure under current technological conditions. However, it cannot be ruled out that more powerful quantum algorithms in the future might break PQC, forcing the development of better PQC. There is an unfortunate tendency to label anything as "quantum secure communication" and claim absolute security, which is unscientific. Neither QKD nor PQC is a panacea. Whether security standards are met must be determined through scientific verification methods. Without strict inspection, no one knows if it is secure, and relevant units will not dare to use it.
How far is quantum secure communication from industrialization? Large-scale commercial application will likely take 5 to 10 years, with PQC possibly landing first. Some products have already begun sales, and some units, including in the financial industry, are trialing them, but none have been widely promoted yet. Beyond continuing to improve secure communication effectiveness, the industry is also working to reduce costs, making quantum secure communication more accessible.
Proactive Industrial Layout is Urgent - Support should be given to startups with clear target markets and technical capabilities, avoiding a "scattergun approach." - Early application scenarios should be emphasized; promoting the integration of new digital infrastructure and quantum technology is a good lever. - Sichuan can leverage its existing industrial system for quantum technology applications, engaging in differentiated competition with other provinces and cities.
According to public information, at least over 10 provincial-level administrative regions, including Sichuan, have included quantum technology in their 15th Five-Year Plans. For proactive industrial layout, what are the urgent tasks at the government level? Government support should be selective, targeting startups with clear target markets and technical capabilities. Such companies often have preliminary results, even products being trialed by target customers, but they generally are not yet profitable and rely on financing. Government support, akin to adding a policy "double insurance" on top of financing, can help them industrialize faster and more steadily. Avoid a "scattergun approach" of supporting all companies in quantum technology, as it is difficult to achieve results that way. Especially now, with high industry attention, some companies dare to cross into quantum technology just by adding a label; relevant departments must carefully screen. Regarding specific methods of government support, "providing projects" or "providing investment" are both viable.
Do quantum technology companies currently lack investment? They are not short of investment but lack patient capital. Quantum technology is a disruptive technology with relatively higher uncertainty and risk in industrialization. However, the overall development trend is certain; humanity is inevitably moving toward a quantum era, it's just a matter of how to get there faster.
Does "providing projects" include both R&D projects and application projects? Yes. R&D projects support companies in improving key product indicators, helping them accelerate market entry. Application projects provide more early application scenarios for companies. Currently, some attitudes toward disruptive technologies are "wait and see," to act only when the technology matures. If everyone thinks this way and no one dares to be the first, not only will they miss development opportunities, but it will also slow the industrialization progress of quantum technology. In such cases, the government needs to take the lead in application, while mobilizing and guiding more industries to trial quantum technology to solve industry problems. Once proven effective in a certain area, it opens a path and a new market for quantum technology industrialization. To provide early application scenarios, promoting the integration of new digital infrastructure and quantum technology is an excellent lever. Data centers, computing power centers, satellite internet, etc., can all be integrated with quantum technology. There are already practices in this area. I know that Hefei City has begun introducing quantum computers into supercomputing centers, exploring the creation of a "quantum-supercomputing fusion" computing platform. Quantum computers are not meant to replace supercomputers but to cooperate with them, jointly enhancing computing speed. The United States has similar explorations.
Can you offer suggestions for Sichuan in promoting quantum technology industrialization? Currently, Sichuan's quantum technology industrialization is at a medium level nationally, with highlights in both R&D and industrialization. However, after all, Sichuan's focus on quantum technology has only been in the last 10 years, so objectively, there is still some distance compared to several coastal provinces and cities that started earlier. Nevertheless, the entire industry has not yet formed a mature market, so everyone has opportunities to catch up. Sichuan has a very strong industrial background, with solid foundations in industries like aerospace and electronic information. Personally, I believe Sichuan can fully leverage its existing industrial system for quantum technology applications, engaging in differentiated competition with other provinces and cities, doing what others have not, and carving out its own path.
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