On July 1st, COMEX gold experienced significant intraday volatility, closing with a Doji candlestick pattern at $4044.6 per ounce, marking a gain of 0.15%. Domestically, SHFE gold opened higher in the night session and surged rapidly, but the upward momentum was short-lived, with prices subsequently retreating. It closed at 888.04 yuan per gram, up 1.23%.
Key Data Analysis
Regarding data, figures released by ADP Research on Wednesday indicated that US private sector employment increased by 98,000 in June, falling short of the expected 119,000 and below the previous figure of 122,000. The slowdown in US private sector job growth in June led to a cooling of expectations for further interest rate hikes. Furthermore, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for June declined by 0.7 points to 53.3, lower than the forecast of 53.9. Concurrently, the pace of raw material price increases slowed noticeably in June, with the ISM Prices Paid Index dropping sharply by 9.1 points to 73, below the expected 77.5. This represents the largest monthly decline since July 2022, signaling a relief in cost pressures. This data contributed to yesterday's rebound in gold prices.
Central Bank Commentary
However, last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh explicitly stated at the ECB Forum that the Fed would abandon forward guidance on interest rates, with future policy decisions relying entirely on real-time economic data. He noted that inflation risks in the US have decreased over the past four weeks, reiterated the Fed's independence from political pressure, and emphasized the commitment to continue balance sheet reduction and internal reforms to adapt to the rapidly changing economic environment. Warsh's remarks on moderating inflation fueled market expectations for a less aggressive Fed tightening path, benefiting gold and prompting a rebound. However, the sustainability of this move remains to be seen. Continued focus is warranted on upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls data and subsequent inflation reports for further guidance.
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