February 12: In the previous trading session on Wednesday, February 11th, international gold prices rebounded strongly and closed higher. The price action maintained its recent volatility range and the bullish outlook above the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages. Although the Non-Farm Payrolls data significantly exceeded expectations, leading to reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, it did not pressure gold prices to decline steadily. Instead, supported by steady central bank buying and geopolitical factors, prices bottomed out and sustained their gains. Furthermore, after former President Trump praised the jobs data and again urged the Fed to cut rates to "the lowest globally," gold found support to remain above technical levels. This also suggests that gold prices still hold potential for further strengthening and climbing in the future.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $5,027.38 per ounce and initially moved higher in a consolidative manner. The momentum continued into the European session with intensified strength, as prices rebounded consecutively to touch an intraday high of $5,119.05 before encountering resistance and pulling back. During the early US session, prices saw a sharp decline, touching an intraday low of $4,964.04. Ultimately, they found a bottom and rebounded, consolidating to close at $5,084.54. The daily trading range was $155.01, with a gain of $57.16, or 1.14%.
Looking ahead to today, Thursday, February 12th: International gold opened slightly weaker. Asian markets are still digesting the robust US employment report, but gold prices remain above bullish support levels. Steady long-term buying interest is expected to once again propel gold to regain momentum. Additionally, the US Dollar Index closed flat yesterday, overall failing to strengthen, and weekly and monthly charts still indicate potential for further weakness, which would support gold prices.
Moreover, although the NFP data was strong, it likely only delays the timing of rate cuts rather than ending the easing cycle. Data from last week, such as ADP and weekly jobless claims, still support the case for eventual rate cuts. Today, the market will see the US Weekly Jobless Claims data for the week ending February 7th; market expectations lean towards being negative for gold. On Friday, the US January CPI year-over-year and month-over-month figures are due, with market expectations being positive for gold. Therefore, gold price movement heading into the weekend is expected to be primarily characterized by an oscillatory uptrend.
Fundamentally, while the US January NFP data was robust, a single data point is unlikely to alter the longer-term outlook. Furthermore, data released last week, like the ADP report, has caused some market skepticism regarding this jobs report. Additionally, the partial US government shutdown this month is expected to result in weaker-than-expected February NFP data compared to previous figures, which would again be positive for gold.
Simultaneously, former President Trump continues to emphasize the need for rate cuts, geopolitical tensions remain volatile, and central bank buying persists. Consequently, the underlying drivers supporting the bull market prospects for the year remain intact. Thus, the subsequent price path will likely involve either consolidation and adjustment or a resumption of the strengthening and climbing trend.
Technically, on a monthly chart, after gold prices in February extended the bearish inverted hammer pattern from January with another sharp decline, they touched the support level formed from the broken ascending trendline resistance from the start of the year. Prices then found a bottom and rebounded, remaining within the new bull market territory and also holding above the 5-month moving average. This suggests that the bearish correction seen in January may be exhausted, and the new bullish outlook remains valid. Looking ahead, prices are expected to either strengthen further from above this trendline support or consolidate before resuming their upward climb.
On the weekly chart, last week's price action saw gold bottom out and rebound to close back above the 5 and 10-week moving averages. This has tempered the bearish topping signal from the previous week's reversal pattern, indicating a potential shift back towards strength. Furthermore, the overall price structure remains within an ascending trend. Therefore, the future path may involve either continued high-level consolidation or a continuation of the rebound and strengthening. Key support to watch remains the 5 and 10-week moving averages, and the strategy of buying on dips remains appropriate.
On the daily chart, gold's trading range has noticeably narrowed recently, but the overall structure maintains a consolidative upward trend. Prices are also trading above the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages, indicating that bulls hold the advantage. Support to monitor includes the short-term moving averages and the middle Bollinger Band line; the approach remains to view dips as buying opportunities, targeting a move towards the upper Bollinger Band.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level ideas are provided for reference; specific entry and exit points are subject to real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $5,000 or $4,960; Resistance levels to watch are around $5,150 or $5,180. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $82.00 or $80.65; Resistance levels to watch are around $86.35 or $88.45.
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