Danish biopharmaceutical company Zealand Pharma A/S (ZEAL) announced an ambitious five-year strategy for its anti-obesity drug portfolio on Thursday, highlighting intensifying competition from smaller players as more such drugs near market entry, challenging industry leaders Novo-Nordisk A/S (NVO) and Eli Lilly.
The new strategy, dubbed "Metabolic Frontier 2030," comes as Zealand's shares have fallen 29% year-to-date, with investors betting on a more fragmented market with fewer single winners compared to the peak of the weight-loss drug frenzy 18 months ago.
Ahead of Thursday's Capital Markets Day, the Danish firm stated its goal to launch five new drugs, at least 10 clinical pipeline projects, and achieve industry-leading development cycles by 2030.
In a statement, Zealand said the strategy combines strategic partnerships, accelerated drug development, and expanded R&D capabilities to build the world's most valuable metabolic health pipeline.
Among Zealand's most promising candidates is the amylin analog petrelintide, which targets pancreatic amylin hormone—a different mechanism than the GLP-1 gut hormones targeted by Novo's Wegovy and Lilly's Zepbound. Co-developed with Roche, the drug has shown milder side effects than existing injectables in early trials.
Interim petrelintide data will be released early next year, while full-year 2026 data is expected for its dual-target GLP-1 agonist survodutide.
The Winners Will Narrow Currently, Novo and Lilly dominate the weight-loss drug market, having pioneered the only FDA-approved anti-obesity treatments. But as the market takes shape, more companies are eyeing this lucrative space—analysts project it could reach $150 billion annually by early next decade.
While Novo shares have suffered their worst year on record in 2025, plunging 50%, Lilly has become investors' darling as its Zepbound and Mounjaro demonstrate superior weight-loss efficacy versus Novo's Ozempic and Wegovy. Lilly also leads in new U.S. prescriptions.
On Thursday, Lilly released first late-stage data for next-generation therapy retatrutide, which uniquely targets three appetite-regulating hormones versus Wegovy and Zepbound's one or two.
Lilly's stock resilience reflects investor confidence in its pipeline's financial potential and diversified portfolio beyond diabetes/obesity treatments.
Meanwhile, Zealand's shares—like Novo's—peaked mid-2024 before slowing as investors diversified bets. Last month, Zealand halted development of GLP-1/GLP-2 dual agonist dapiglutide, citing market saturation, opting to focus resources on candidates with greater clinical differentiation.
Major pharma firms like AstraZeneca, Amgen, and Pfizer—along with clinical-stage players Structure Therapeutics and Viking Therapeutics—all aim to carve market share from Lilly and Novo.
Morningstar's Karen Andersen noted: "The market recognizes Lilly's position but underestimates others' innovation." She added that while Lilly may maintain over 50% global share near-term, next-gen competitors could stabilize its dominance—a potential the market consensus underappreciates.
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