According to Woofun AI, Glassnode has offered a clear assessment of the nature of BTC's recent rebound: the move is premature and speculative, with the core problem being the absence of meaningful trading volume to support it. The decay in capital inflows and the evolution of seller structure reveal insufficient underlying momentum in the market.
In a weekly report released on September 30, Glassnode traced the flow of funds into U.S. spot ETFs (IBIT.US): at the end of September, over two consecutive trading days, roughly $1 billion flowed in each day, with the single-day inflow on September 21 approaching the highest level in a year, but inflows have steadily declined since then.
Data compiled by Woofun AI shows that the current weekly net realized profit level is closer to that seen at the start of the 2023 uptrend rather than the peaks of 2024 or 2025, indicating a relatively low degree of overall profit-taking. However, the composition of sellers has shifted significantly: long-term holders who have held for more than 155 days saw their realized profits nearly double in the week ending September 29, with their share of total realized profits rising from 34% to 55%.
Technical resistance and the contraction in market breadth further confirm the fragility of the rally. On Binance's spot order book, a large cluster of sell orders has accumulated in the $85,000 to $85,500 range, with that figure tripling since September 24, and price approaching the lower bound of the range but failing to break through. Total daily trading volume across spot exchanges and ETFs averages about $6.4 billion, a relatively low level since ETFs were launched.
From a structural perspective, other cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin over the past month, with most of the top 500 tokens gaining more than BTC within 30 days, but momentum slowed this week, with only 6% of cryptocurrencies at their 30-day high, a sharp pullback from 49% on September 22.
Leverage has remained at low levels, making the possibility of forced liquidations relatively low, but this does not mean the trend is solid. Only if price remains consistently above the true market mean and volume rises accordingly can the uptrend gain broader support. Widespread market demand has yet to appear, and any signal of a drop below the true market mean would end the current momentum.
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