JD.com's 2025 fourth-quarter and full-year results showcased numerous highlights, including record-high profitability for its retail business, accelerated growth in the logistics segment, and a positive shareholder return policy, collectively boosting investor confidence.
In a research report published on March 6, Goldman Sachs noted that although JD Retail's Q4 revenue saw a slight year-over-year decline, primarily due to the high base effect from government trade-in subsidies, strong advertising revenue growth, continued narrowing of losses in the food delivery business, and management's cautiously optimistic guidance for 2026 all exceeded market expectations.
The report stated that JD.com is a differentiated and undervalued player within China's internet sector, combining the scale of a major retailer, a unique dual-engine model of direct sales and marketplace operations, and industry-leading self-built warehousing and supply chain capabilities.
These results validate the profit resilience of JD Retail. The company's outlook for mid-single-digit revenue growth and stable margins in 2026, coupled with JD Logistics' stronger-than-expected growth guidance—revenue growth exceeding 20% with even faster profit growth—provides investors with clear fundamental support. Furthermore, the ongoing share repurchases and dividend payments offer a margin of safety for the stock price.
Reflecting market sentiment, JD.com's Hong Kong-listed shares surged nearly 10% today, indicating strong investor approval of the earnings report.
**Q4 Key Metrics: Retail Margin Exceeds Expectations, New Business Losses in Line**
According to Goldman Sachs' report, JD.com's Q4 revenue grew 2% year-over-year, largely matching market expectations. Breaking it down, product revenue declined 3% year-over-year, while service revenue increased 20%.
Revenue from electronics and home appliances fell 12% year-over-year, slightly better than Goldman's forecast of a 15% decline, mainly affected by the high base from trade-in subsidies initiated in September 2024.
General merchandise revenue grew 12% year-over-year, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, though slightly below Goldman's 16% expectation. Marketplace and advertising revenue surged 15% year-over-year, significantly surpassing Goldman's 8% forecast, benefiting from AI-powered advertising technology, increased platform traffic, and incremental ad revenue from the food delivery business.
Notably, profitability continued to improve. JD Retail's Q4 operating margin reached 3.1%, exceeding Goldman's forecast of 2.7%. For the full year, operating profit reached 51.4 billion yuan, up 25% year-over-year and surpassing Goldman's expectation of 49 billion yuan; the full-year operating margin improved to 4.6% from 4.0% in 2024, setting a new record. Losses from the New Businesses segment totaled 14.8 billion yuan, essentially in line with Goldman's forecast of 14.9 billion yuan, with food delivery losses narrowing by 20% sequentially.
**2026 Outlook: Steady Retail Growth, Logistics Acceleration**
Management provided a relatively positive business outlook for 2026. JD Retail is expected to achieve mid-single-digit revenue growth with margins remaining stable year-over-year; improvements in operational efficiency are anticipated to offset pressure from potentially weaker national subsidy policies.
Long-term, the company aims to elevate JD Retail's operating margin to a high-single-digit percentage, driven primarily by optimized procurement capabilities, improved operational efficiency in general merchandise and supermarket operations, and better product category mix.
The electronics and home appliances category will continue to face pressure from a high base in the first half of 2026 but is expected to gradually recover in the second half as comparables ease—higher government subsidy redemptions in H1 2025 versus H2 create a favourable year-over-year comparison for H2 2026.
General merchandise and supermarket businesses are projected to maintain double-digit growth, with increased penetration in healthcare and fashion categories being key drivers. As of the reporting period, JD.com's annual active user base exceeded 730 million, including over 40 million JD PLUS members.
Regarding JD Logistics, Goldman Sachs highlighted its stronger-than-expected guidance: 2026 revenue growth is projected to exceed 20%, with profit growing even faster. In Q4, JD Logistics revenue grew 22% year-over-year to 63.5 billion yuan, slightly above Goldman's 21% forecast, with internal integrated supply chain revenue surging 68% year-over-year, primarily driven by the expansion of on-demand delivery services.
**Multiple New Businesses Advance, AI Enhances Operational Efficiency**
Goldman's report also detailed JD.com's progress in several emerging business areas.
In food delivery and retail innovation, the food delivery business reduced its losses by 20% sequentially in Q4 while maintaining scale; further loss reduction is planned for 2026 through optimized subsidy and fulfillment efficiency. As of February 2026, the number of 7FRESH restaurant outlets exceeded 50.
For international business, JoyBuy remains in a pilot operational phase, with users providing positive feedback on the fulfillment experience; the company expects investment to increase sequentially but maintains a cautious approach.
In lower-tier markets, Jingxi is focused on supplying unbranded goods, with management anticipating a slight increase in investment this year while unit economics continue to improve.
Concurrently, the company is accelerating its AI application rollout. The number of merchants using JD's AI digital human, JoyStreamer, surpassed 50,000 in Q4; the AI customer service system handled over 4.2 billion user inquiries during the Double Eleven shopping festival; and the number of internally deployed AI agents exceeded 50,000.
The self-developed large language model, JoyAI, now supports over 1,000 practical business scenarios, with token usage growing nearly a hundredfold compared to 2024; JoyAgent's annual active users surpassed 150 million, achieving a user penetration rate of over 20%, with the company targeting a doubling of its user base by 2026.
**Full-Year Return Exceeds 10%, Buyback Program Continues**
Goldman's report indicated a significant shareholder return for JD.com in 2025. In Q4, the company repurchased $1.5 billion of its shares under the $5 billion buyback program (effective until August 2027), bringing the full-year total to $3 billion, representing approximately 6.3% of the total shares outstanding.
As of the end of 2025, $2 billion remained under the current buyback authorization. The company also paid a full-year cash dividend of $1.4 billion, equivalent to approximately $1 per ADS, resulting in a total shareholder return exceeding 10% for the year.
Goldman Sachs believes that JD Retail's strong profit performance in 2025 provides ample financial flexibility for the company to increase investments in new growth areas such as food delivery, Jingxi, and international business starting from the second quarter, helping to build more sustainable growth momentum as the tailwinds from trade-in policies diminish.
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