Gold Market Review and Key Insights: Last week, gold prices traded within a narrow range. London spot gold closed at $4,197/oz (down 0.5% WoW), while domestic AU9999 gold settled at ¥957/gram (up 0.9% WoW).
On December 5, the White House released its National Security Strategy, further emphasizing "America First" policies that may accelerate deglobalization trends. The document prioritizes U.S. security and regional dominance while scaling back global commitments. Notably, it lists "trade balance" as an economic security priority, suggesting prolonged trade protectionism that could undermine the dollar's international status, thereby enhancing gold's monetary appeal.
The Fed remains in a rate-cutting cycle. Market expectations show an 88% probability of a 25bp cut at the December 11 FOMC meeting, with attention on forward guidance for 2024. Concerns about Fed independence persist, as reports suggest Trump may appoint Kevin Hassett—a loyal ally favoring aggressive easing—as next Fed Chair. Such political influence could weaken dollar credibility through inflationary pressures and erode its reserve currency status, potentially benefiting gold.
China's central bank extended its gold-buying streak for a 13th month, adding 30,000 ounces in November to reach 74.12 million ounces. With gold reserves at just 7% of total holdings—below the global central bank average—PBOC has significant room for further accumulation.
Outlook: The Fed's dovish pivot, combined with U.S. fiscal expansion and sovereign credit risks, supports gold's long-term value. Key monitoring points for gold ETF (518880) include: (1) December FOMC decision and dot plot; (2) November U.S. CPI data.
Comparative Performance of RMB-denominated vs. International Gold:
[Data source: Wind, HuaAn Fund, as of 2025/12/5]
Risk Disclosure: Investors should note gold-specific risks including price volatility, tracking error versus domestic spot prices, and Shanghai Gold Exchange risks. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. Fund returns may vary across market cycles. Carefully review prospectuses and assess risk tolerance before investing.
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