On September 7th, all three major indices closed higher, with most broad-based benchmarks posting gains though turnover slightly contracted. The Shanghai Composite inched up 0.07% to 3,932 points, while the ChiNext Index surged 3.41%. Hong Kong equities declined during the session, with the Hang Seng Index falling 0.74% by the A-share market close. Total two-market turnover eased to 1.96 trillion yuan, according to WIND data, as 27 of 31 Shenwan primary sectors advanced, with communications, electronics, machinery and agriculture leading the gains at 6.17%, 3.92%, 2.51% and 1.72% respectively, while coal, non-bank financials, petrochemicals and banking suffered losses of 2.53%, 1.87%, 1.53% and 1.49%. Growth sectors staged a sharp rebound while dividend plays retreated, with 3,163 of over 5,300 listed stocks advancing, indicating decent market breadth. A-share sentiment is tracking the global recovery in risk appetite, awaiting clearer direction on external liquidity conditions.
Recent volatility in Fed rate hike expectations has amplified overseas market swings, with geopolitical and liquidity uncertainties prompting investors to reduce risk exposure. Following Friday's jobs report, US stocks traded in a mildly hawkish manner as wage inflation showed no signs of losing control, with indices pulling back slightly but maintaining structural differentiation as strongly profitable tech names continued to outperform. The robust rebound in overseas tech sectors directly fueled a significant recovery in A-share technology stocks today, with optical modules and semiconductors leading the market's core buying momentum while heavyweight sectors lagged, dragging the Shanghai Composite into consolidation. The weakness in value-oriented sectors may partly reflect the impact of overseas rate hike expectations.
At the macro level, the US August nonfarm payrolls significantly exceeded market forecasts, adding 162,000 jobs versus an expected 55,000. Structurally, food services and bars alongside local government education were the primary contributors, concentrated in specific sectors, with seasonal adjustment factors adding 8,000 jobs compared to the -165,000 average during 2022-2025. The unemployment rate edged higher to 4.14% in August from 4.09% in July, mainly due to a rising labor force participation rate. However, wage-driven inflation transmission appears limited, with average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-over-month while year-on-year growth eased from 3.2% to 3.1%, somewhat alleviating concerns over core inflation stickiness. Overall, the single-month payrolls reading carries limited signal value given its moderate data quality, meaning the September Fed decision likely hinges on Thursday's August CPI report.
Fed rate hike expectations have recently been reshaped through three phases—Warsh's hawkish stance, Waller's conditional dovishness, and the stronger-than-expected payrolls—leaving the probability of a September hike around 60%. Overseas liquidity expectations remain tight, awaiting the August CPI print to ease external pressures and provide a more stable environment for A-share recovery. In terms of industry catalysts, major global AI players have released new models driving sector progress, potentially opening the ceiling for AI demand. On September 3rd, the company unveiled GPT-6 Astra, demonstrating AI's evolution from text, images and video toward editable three-dimensional assets, while World Labs Atlas has pushed this further into spatial understanding, world reconstruction and environmental simulation. As artificial intelligence transitions from the digital to the physical world, 3D data is transforming from professional design material into critical infrastructure for machines to understand real-world environments, potentially ushering spatial data collection, 3D reconstruction, simulation training and robot/autonomous driving industries into a new cycle. On the computing hardware front, training 3D world models and real-time spatial rendering substantially expand demand for large-scale computing clusters and high-speed interconnect networks.
GPT-6 Astra was trained on a cluster of over 100,000 high-end GPUs, with global leading firms accelerating infrastructure expansion, forming logical resonance with Friday's surge in US-listed storage, optical communications and AI chip names. Today, A-share computing hardware sectors took the lead, with capital continuing to flow into core hardware assets. The continuous iteration of AI models should dispel concerns about technological stagnation and intensifying competition arising from price wars in large model offerings. AI demand ceilings may extend beyond programming to encompass workflows, AI science, RSI and other emerging scenarios. Returning to market views, we believe A-shares will maintain a range-bound but slightly positive bias, with structural opportunities remaining worthy of attention once the overseas liquidity environment clarifies. Recent sessions have shown A-shares oscillating, as domestically, post-earnings uncertainty has been digested following the interim results season, while the August manufacturing PMI recovered modestly. However, weak economic repair limits earnings elasticity, with significant structural divergence persisting. As turnover continues to shrink and rotations accelerate without a clear market leader, upside momentum faces constraints.
Overseas, US-Iran tensions remain fluid with oil prices repeatedly spiking, while Fed rate hike expectations have undergone multiple reversals, amplifying overseas liquidity volatility. This, combined with elevated long-end sovereign yields globally, has re-strengthened constraints on market performance, with risk-appetite suppression awaiting resolution. Going forward, attention should focus on US August inflation data, with liquidity disturbances potentially recurring ahead of the September FOMC meeting. Looking ahead, high overseas liquidity volatility and overhead trapped positions continue to constrain index breakthroughs, but supported by loose domestic liquidity, policy measures and underlying support, downside appears relatively limited, suggesting near-term consolidation is likely. For sector allocation, maintaining balanced positioning mid-term is prudent amid rapid rotations, favoring sectors with earnings momentum and reasonable valuations supported by industry trends and supply-demand improvements. In technology, despite recurring overseas liquidity disturbances and declining risk appetite, AI-related chains still need near-term consolidation to digest share overhangs, with the next rally awaiting fresh industry catalysts and earnings validation. Avoid chasing highs, instead focusing on core segments with tight supply-demand dynamics and solid earnings certainty during pullbacks, including optical modules and copper-clad laminates on the overseas chain, and advanced process and semiconductor equipment on the domestic chain. For value sectors, after capital rebalancing, observed industry supply-demand fundamentals will determine follow-through. The pricing of improved overseas liquidity is shifting toward the right side, benefiting nonferrous metals, Hong Kong-listed stocks and innovative drugs; recent rate hike expectations may trigger pullbacks, but mid-term, US economic and inflation weakening leaves room for liquidity improvement, suggesting opportunities for re-entry after corrections. Coal and energy chemicals face mid-term upside risks from factors such as prolonged conflicts, China's restocking demand returning and limited global inventory release, with sectors characterized by strong demand and supply contraction set to benefit during the September-October peak season. Non-bank financials still hold valuation recovery potential supported by business fundamentals, with the catalyst likely emerging from improved market sentiment or tech rallies boosting trading volumes and investment returns. Risk disclosure: The data in this material is for reference only. The cited views and analytical forecasts represent the investment research team's judgments under specific market conditions and assumptions, not suitable for all future market scenarios, and do not constitute investment advice. Investment involves risk; please exercise caution. Before making investment decisions, carefully review the fund contract, prospectus and product summary, fully understand the fund's risk-return characteristics and product features, consider all risk factors, and rationally evaluate your own investment objectives, horizon, experience and risk tolerance prior to making prudent decisions.
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