Analysis of the latest gold market trends:
On July 2nd, a gold market analysis: On Thursday (July 2nd) in early Asian trading, spot gold is currently consolidating narrowly around $4040 per ounce. Wednesday (July 1st) was a heart-pounding day for the global gold market. Spot gold once fell below the $3960 per ounce mark in the Asian session, continuing the decline from the previous day when it hit a seven-month low. However, the plot took a dramatic turn later—gold prices not only strongly recovered the key $4000 level but also surged to a one-week high of $4114.77 per ounce in the New York session. Despite some pullback at the close, it ultimately finished 0.6% higher at $4030.94 per ounce. This intraday volatility exceeding $150 was no coincidence.
Gold technical analysis: Yesterday, gold experienced wide-range, volatile trading, with an intraday high of $4115 and a low of $3960, showing significant price swings and intense short-term battles between bulls and bears. The overall pattern suggests a medium-term bearish dominance, with a short-term oversold rebound. Even with a bounce from the lows, one should not blindly buy for a bottom or turn bullish, as there remains a risk of a secondary decline at any time. Trading requires independent judgment and strict risk control. From a technical perspective, the daily chart's complete bearish structure remains intact, with prices consistently pressured below the 5, 10, and 20-day moving averages, which continue to decline, creating layered resistance. The MACD is operating below zero; a slight contraction in the green bars only indicates a short-term weakening of downward momentum, not a bottom reversal signal. The RSI has fallen into a deeply oversold zone, suggesting only room for a technical rebound, not a trend reversal. On the 4-hour chart, after probing $3960, the price quickly recovered, forming a candlestick with a long lower shadow, indicating short-term support. However, the Bollinger Bands are generally opening downwards, limiting the rebound strength, which is characteristic of a consolidation within a downtrend. The key resistance above is locked at the intraday high of $4115; only a sustained break above this level can alleviate bearish pressure. The core support below is $3960; if this low is broken decisively, a new wave of decline could open, with the next support seen around $3900. In summary, for today's short-term gold trading, the recommended strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance is focused on the $4080-4115 zone, while key short-term support is focused on the $4000-3960 zone.
Analysis of the latest crude oil market trends:
Crude oil market analysis: On Thursday (Beijing time, July 2nd) in early Asian trading, oil prices fell, with US crude oil trading around $68 per barrel. US President Trump stated that US-Iran talks in Qatar were progressing smoothly, and the market awaits the release of non-farm payroll data later. Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with Brent crude down 3% to $71.13 per barrel and US crude down 2.77% to $68.09 per barrel, both hitting their lowest levels in four months. This was mainly due to President Trump's comments that US-Iran talks in Qatar were going well, the relationship was "very good," and technical talks in Doha aimed to reach an agreement on shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz and a lasting ceasefire, easing market concerns about supply disruptions.
Crude oil technical analysis: From the daily chart perspective, the moving average system is gradually diverging downward, indicating the medium-term objective trend direction is entering a downtrend. Crude oil prices have broken below the support level of the lower boundary of a three-month range, with bearish momentum strengthening. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will primarily operate in a downward pattern. The short-term (1-hour) crude oil trend maintains a low-range consolidation, with the range fluctuating between $72.40 and $68.50. This low-level correction pattern has persisted for four trading sessions. Bullish and bearish momentum are intertwined. In early trading, oil prices are at the lower end of the range; focus on the support and resistance effects of the range boundaries. It is expected that intraday crude oil movements will maintain range-bound fluctuations, awaiting a breakout direction. In summary, for today's crude oil trading, the recommended strategy is primarily to sell on rallies, supplemented by buying on dips. Key short-term resistance is focused on the $69.5-70.5 zone, while key short-term support is focused on the $66.0-64.0 zone.
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