Morningstar has released a research report indicating it has raised its fair value estimate for ASMPT (00522) by 10%, from HK$100 to HK$110. Based on the current share price, the stock is rated at two stars.
Morningstar notes that driven by AI-related demand growth, the forecasts for ASMPT's revenue and operating profit have been raised by approximately 20%, though the impact on long-term performance projections is relatively minor. The company operates in a cyclical industry and benefits from AI-driven demand as well as the shift from semiconductor development to back-end semiconductor packaging, a field in which ASMPT is a leading equipment supplier.
In the second quarter, revenue grew 52% year-over-year, and order volume increased 98% year-over-year. The company's guidance for the third quarter of 2026 indicates revenue will grow 46% year-over-year, with order volume expected to maintain strong growth momentum. On the less favorable side of the results, memory business revenue growth slowed, with revenue in the South Korea region declining 64%, mainly due to a slower-than-expected transition by customers to the fourth-generation High Bandwidth Memory (HBM4). However, management has stated that it has already deployed 8-layer HBM4 in mass production.
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