After the National Day holiday, volatility in the A-share market intensified, yet ETFs attracted counter-trend capital deployment.
Due to the National Day holiday, last week had only two trading days. Against the backdrop of a correction in the technology growth sector and clear divergence among major indices, equity ETFs continued to draw capital favor. On October 8 and October 9, net inflows reached 17.907 billion yuan and 22.782 billion yuan respectively, totaling more than 40 billion yuan. Products related to the STAR 50, ChiNext and CSI 300 became important directions for capital deployment.
Equity ETFs Absorb Over 40 Billion Yuan in Two Trading Days Last Week
After the long National Day holiday, the A-share market corrected again, with the technology growth sector becoming the main drag. However, the ETF market did not see capital retreat.
Wind data shows that on October 8, equity ETFs recorded net inflows of more than 17.9 billion yuan, of which broad-based ETFs saw net inflows of about 11 billion yuan and thematic ETFs saw net inflows of about 7 billion yuan. Among the products with the largest net inflows, ChinaAMC SSE STAR 50 ETF saw net inflows of more than 3.6 billion yuan, and E Fund ChiNext ETF saw net inflows of more than 2.1 billion yuan.
On October 9, the A-share market rebounded. Major indices dipped intraday before gradually recovering, forming a deep-V pattern. At the same time, turnover in several broad-based ETFs expanded significantly. Turnover in ChinaAMC SSE STAR 50 ETF exceeded 10.7 billion yuan, while E Fund ChiNext ETF, Southern CSI 1000 ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF also traded actively.
Taking the two days after the holiday together, equity ETFs recorded total net inflows of more than 40 billion yuan. Among them, ChinaAMC SSE STAR 50 ETF saw net inflows of more than 7.2 billion yuan and E Fund ChiNext ETF saw net inflows of more than 4.3 billion yuan, ranking first and second respectively. In addition, Southern CSI 1000 ETF, E Fund SSE STAR 50 ETF, ChinaAMC SSE STAR Semiconductor Materials and Equipment Theme ETF, Harvest SSE STAR Chip ETF, Fullgoal SSE Composite Index ETF and Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF ranked among the top in net inflows.
From the perspective of capital flows, there are two noteworthy features: first, broad-based ETFs received relatively large inflows, indicating that some investors tend to participate in the market through index-based tools; second, technology-themed ETFs still attracted capital deployment, but the sector fluctuated sharply, and capital's judgment on short-term risks and long-term growth space was not entirely consistent.
However, it should be noted that net inflows into ETFs do not equate to an imminent market reversal. Capital flows may also be affected by institutional rebalancing, index adjustments, arbitrage trading and product subscriptions and redemptions. Judging market trends still requires a comprehensive analysis combining trading volume, corporate earnings, the policy environment and valuation levels.
Where Is the Market Headed? Keep an Eye on These Three Key Variables
Regarding the reasons for the market correction, Great Wall Fund said the core of this week's volatility fell on technology hardware, and it was not a sudden change in fundamentals but the impact of triple pressures: regulatory expectations, supply concerns and crowded positioning. On the overseas regulatory front, an international investment bank report suggested that the United States may impose restrictions on optical communication products through a controlled list plus local value content requirements, gradually raising the threshold starting from high-end product lines, triggering panic in the optical module and optical chip sectors. On the supply side, overseas memory giants announced aggressive capacity expansion, affecting the memory sector from the supply side. On the earnings verification side, the annualized revenue disclosed by OpenAI was significantly lower than previous market expectations, raising global concerns about the profitability of AI assets, and overnight U.S. tech stocks and memory spot prices weakened in tandem. Combined with technology sector valuations and trading crowding at historical extremes, negative information was significantly amplified.
Looking ahead, Guotai Fund said that the market has recently remained defensive under cautious expectations, reflecting capital switching to lower positions in advance based on concerns such as technology行情 adjustment and overseas disruptions. But the probability of a systemic market correction is declining: the macroeconomy has not yet entered a downward cycle (interim reports confirmed earnings recovery, and high-frequency production data for infrastructure and the chemical chain improved marginally), and the AI industry is accelerating rather than decelerating.
Great Wall Fund said that as the year-end approaches, expectations may need to be moderately lowered — under a high base in the third-quarter reports, growth earnings growth faces a marginal slowdown, and the pricing focus is shifting from valuation expansion to earnings delivery. A broad-based rally is unlikely, and stock selection matters more than timing. Going forward, it is recommended to focus on three key variables: first, whether third-quarter report disclosures can deliver on prosperity; second, the path of overseas interest rates and the evolution of optical communication regulation; third, the degree to which memory capacity expansion is realized and changes in the geopolitical situation.
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