The S&P 500 index (^GSPC) has once again climbed above its 200-day moving average, shifting market momentum back in favor of the bulls. The underlying principle is straightforward, though it need not be overcomplicated. The index last fell below this key average in March 2025, near a significant marker: it first breached the average, then rebounded to test it from below, only to face a sharp sell-off after April 2. Subsequently, the S&P reclaimed the average, tested it from above, and then embarked on a rally. These two tests—first from below and then from above—represent a classic textbook pattern. The current bull market began from the lows of October 2022. It initially failed its first test of the 200-day moving average in December 2022. However, after a brief dip, the index moved back above the average and soon began using it as a general support level. At times, the market may briefly dip below the average before the trend resumes, as seen around late 2024: the S&P dropped slightly below the 200-day average but quickly recovered. When a major trend change is developing, price action around the moving average can become erratic, similar to the behavior observed near the start of the 2022 bear market. Such volatile movements remain possible. However, with the S&P back above the 200-day moving average, the pressure is now back on the bears, unless this latest breakout proves unsuccessful.
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