Abstract
Louisiana-Pacific will report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 17, 2026, Pre-Market. This preview synthesizes company guidance, recent operating trends, and consensus forecast ranges to frame revenue, margins, and adjusted EPS expectations, and sets context for the outlook on core siding and OSB product demand into early 2026.
Market Forecast
The market projects Louisiana-Pacific’s fourth-quarter revenue at $594.02 million, with adjusted EPS near $0.01 and EBIT about $1.09 million, implying a year-over-year revenue decline of 10.99% and a sharp EPS contraction of 98.83%. Gross margin and net profit margin are expected to soften modestly versus last year, though the company’s previous quarter baseline shows a gross margin of 19.46% and a net profit margin of 1.36%. The main business is anticipated to be dominated by Siding revenue, with OSB cyclical pressure and South America providing a smaller, albeit stable, contribution; management attention centers on price/mix resilience in Siding and rebuild/repair trends. The most promising segment remains Siding, with last quarter revenue of $443.00 million; momentum depends on price realization and channel inventory normalization, while year-over-year growth is constrained by housing turnover softness.
Last Quarter Review
In the prior quarter, Louisiana-Pacific posted revenue of $663.00 million, a gross margin of 19.46%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of $9.00 million, a net margin of 1.36%, and adjusted EPS of $0.36, with revenue down 8.17% year over year. Inventory discipline and pricing in Siding helped offset OSB volatility, but mix and volume headwinds limited operating leverage. By business line, Siding generated $443.00 million, OSB contributed $179.00 million, South America added $39.00 million, and other products were $2.00 million; Siding remains the core revenue engine despite macro-driven volume drag.
Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Core Siding performance and what drives this quarter’s print
Siding is the primary revenue and margin anchor for Louisiana-Pacific, and the quarter’s outcome will hinge on pricing durability, channel sell-through, and project activity in repair-and-remodel. With the last quarter Siding revenue at $443.00 million, the mix skew toward higher-value products can cushion volume variability, but a subdued existing-home turnover backdrop constrains absolute growth. Watch for indications of price realization holding against input cost deflation, as that would support gross margin stability even if volumes are tepid. Order patterns from large pro channels and distributors, together with any commentary on backlog and lead times, will be the clearest indicators of how quickly the business can re-accelerate into spring building season. If management highlights promotional intensity remaining contained, the margin setup into 2026 could be more favorable than revenue alone suggests.
OSB cyclicality, pricing prints, and sensitivity to housing starts
OSB, with $179.00 million in last quarter revenue, remains more exposed to commodity price swings and seasonal slowdowns. Spot OSB pricing trends late in the quarter and any updates on curtailments, downtime, or mill utilization will sway EBIT against a low absolute starting point. The forecast EBIT near break-even signals limited operating leverage, so modest pricing improvements in OSB can create outsized earnings variability. Conversely, if housing starts soften or pricing retraces, the business could dilute consolidated margins, reinforcing the importance of Siding’s price/mix execution. Disclosures on hedging, production discipline, and inventory positions will be key to calibrating how much of the OSB volatility flows through to reported margins.
South America and other businesses as stability buffers
South America contributed $39.00 million last quarter and tends to provide steadier revenue relative to North American commodity swings. Currency translation and localized demand conditions can still introduce noise, but the scale is limited in consolidated terms. The strategic role of South America during periods of weaker OSB pricing is to dampen top-line volatility and help sustain plant utilization. Any commentary on regional capacity additions, product mix upgrades, or pricing progression would help frame whether this region can contribute incremental margin support this year.
What will most impact the stock this quarter
Investors will focus on the degree to which Siding margins can hold near the recent gross margin baseline of 19.46% despite revenue pressure, and whether management can steer EBIT meaningfully above the near-zero consensus. The composition of sales between new construction versus repair-and-remodel matters for durability into the spring season; a higher R&R mix typically carries more resilient margins. Guidance on first-half 2026 revenue and commentary on channel inventories will likely dominate the reaction, as even small updates to Siding volume trajectory can swing EPS from near breakeven to a more normalized range. Finally, any capital allocation remarks on buybacks or capex cadence for capacity projects will inform how the company balances near-term softness with long-term share growth ambitions.
Analyst Opinions
Among recent institutional commentaries tracked over the last six months, the predominant tone is cautiously bullish, with the majority highlighting Siding’s defensive attributes and the company’s operating discipline while acknowledging near-term earnings compression. Multiple analysts argue that Siding price/mix should underpin margin stability despite weaker volumes, and that OSB sensitivity leaves upside if commodity prices firm into the spring build. The minority of more cautious voices point to the near-breakeven EPS setup and risk from slower housing activity, but these are outweighed by those expecting gradual improvement through 2026. Representative notes from large sell-side firms emphasize that sustaining price realization in Siding and tight cost control could allow Louisiana-Pacific to exceed the low bar on EBIT and EPS for the quarter, with a constructive setup if channel inventories appear healthy.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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