Abstract
On Holding AG will report fiscal second-quarter results on August 11, 2026, Pre-MKt; this preview summarizes consensus expectations, last quarter’s performance, the main drivers to watch this quarter, and how institutional opinions are shaping the setup.
Market Forecast
Current-quarter projections imply revenue of approximately 1.12 billion US dollars, up 24.65% year over year, alongside estimated adjusted EPS of 0.337, up 59.53% year over year, and an estimated EBIT increase of 68.36% year over year. Margin forecasts were not formally provided, but the debate centers on mix, conversion, and operating leverage versus currency and channel normalization.
The company’s core business remains anchored in performance footwear with complementary apparel and accessories, with expectations for continued new-product sell-through and improving conversion from the traffic gains flagged last quarter. The segment with the strongest near-term growth potential is Asia-Pacific, which contributed roughly 0.21 billion US dollars in the last reported quarter and rose about 44.40% year over year, supported by broad-based strength across key markets.
Last Quarter Review
On Holding AG’s fiscal first quarter delivered revenue of 1.06 billion US dollars, up 14.49% year over year, a gross profit margin of 64.23%, GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders of 131.90 million US dollars with a 12.42% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of 0.41, up 78.26% year over year.
A notable business highlight was that in-store and online traffic rose faster than sales, laying groundwork for better conversion and potentially higher full-price sell-through as operations and marketing funnel improvements take effect. By product category, footwear contributed 975.66 million US dollars (approximately 91.80% of revenue), apparel 70.55 million US dollars, and accessories 16.48 million US dollars, while total revenue grew 14.49% year over year.
Current Quarter Outlook
Core Footwear Engine and Full-Price Sell-Through
The central question for this quarter is whether On Holding AG can turn the traffic gains it flagged last quarter into measurable conversion and sustained full-price sell-through across its footwear portfolio. Product cadence remains busy, with innovation in foams and manufacturing processes attracting new and repeat customers; the brand also continues to broaden use cases beyond running into training and lifestyle. Sell-through at full price is the swing factor for realized gross margin in-quarter, since discounting and wholesale promotional tone can dilute otherwise healthy product margins. Taken together, the current-quarter revenue estimate of about 1.12 billion US dollars (+24.65% year over year) implicitly assumes footwear remains the workhorse and that channel and geographic mix do not blunt volume growth. Consensus expects adjusted EPS to rise 59.53% year over year, which requires meaningful operating leverage on higher volumes and disciplined spending. To support this, watch how sell-in compares to sell-through, particularly in North America where growth indicators have been mixed; sustained traction would confirm that traffic-to-conversion improvements are landing in the P&L.
DTC Mix, Asia-Pacific Momentum, and Conversion
Direct-to-consumer is a structural margin enhancer, and conversion gains—after several quarters of brand awareness investment—could be a numerator for both revenue and gross margin this quarter. The company previously indicated that traffic growth outpaced sales, which typically precedes conversion improvements as product availability, merchandising, and checkout friction are optimized. Asia-Pacific remains a key growth node; the region contributed roughly 0.21 billion US dollars last quarter and grew about 44.40% year over year, driven by broader awareness and expanded points of distribution. If this momentum sustains in the current quarter, it can outgrow the corporate average and lift mix toward higher-growth geographies, even if the absolute mix is still anchored in North America and Europe. A second lever is the company’s ongoing push into adjacent categories and sporting verticals, which complements core running and adds frequency; early signals from these efforts can contribute incremental DTC traffic, and if inventory positioning is clean, support higher conversion. This quarter, a clean inventory backdrop and healthy replenishment velocity would signal that the brand is not relying on promotions to drive unit growth, which in turn would be supportive for gross margin resilience.
Operating Leverage, FX, Leadership Changes, and Other Stock-Price Drivers
At the P&L level, the estimated 68.36% year-over-year increase in EBIT for the quarter underlines elevated expectations for operating leverage on a mid-20% top-line growth algorithm. The drivers to watch are product mix, channel mix (DTC versus wholesale), and opex discipline in marketing and SG&A; execution here determines whether higher volumes translate to the EPS estimate of 0.337. Currency is a second key variable: the company reports in Swiss francs while trading in the United States, and currency swings can influence translated revenue growth and reported margins; though underlying demand can be robust, translation effects may add noise to reported figures. Leadership transitions announced earlier this year—including a co-CEO structure and a new CFO—are relevant this quarter insofar as they set the cadence for capital allocation, inventory governance, and pricing or promotional frameworks; investors will look for continuity of strategy and evidence that organizational changes are enabling faster decision cycles rather than introducing execution risk. Finally, marketing tie-ins and product pipeline milestones provide catalysts for brand heat; if these initiatives correlate with a higher DTC share and a better full-price mix, they can compound operating leverage in the second half.
Analyst Opinions
Institutional views collected over the past six months skew decisively bullish, with a clear majority of buy and overweight ratings versus a minority of cautious stances. Across major firms, price targets and qualitative assessments emphasize sustained category demand, structural gross margin support from DTC mix, disciplined operating execution, and runway from new-product cadence. The prevailing view is that the company’s traffic gains should begin to convert at a higher rate as merchandising and inventory positioning normalize, supporting consensus for roughly mid-20% revenue growth and outsized year-over-year EPS expansion in the current quarter.
Several well-known institutions illustrate this consensus. One firm reiterated a buy rating with a 70.00 US dollars target, highlighting multi-category growth, brand expansion, and margin durability as the rationale for upside. Another maintained a buy rating with a 60.00 US dollars target, citing conservative full-year guidance relative to execution and an attractive growth-to-valuation setup into second-half launches. Additional buy ratings with targets clustered around the mid-40s to 50s reinforce a wide band of supportive opinions that balance near-term channel normalization with confidence in product-led demand. A resumption of overweight coverage by a global bank added to the positive tilt, arguing the brand’s momentum, coupled with mix improvements and innovation, can sustain an above-peer growth rate. While at least one house has flagged slowing North America indicators and moderating DTC growth from elevated levels, the ratio of bullish to cautious views remains heavily tilted toward the former, and the majority analysis centers on durable demand, incremental conversion, and operating leverage as the core earnings drivers this quarter.
Dissecting the majority view reveals three interlocking claims. First, revenue growth in the low-to-mid 20% range is seen as achievable due to ongoing product cycle benefits, steady wholesale reorders, and DTC traction from rising brand awareness; this view aligns with the 24.65% year-over-year revenue estimate. Second, gross margin is perceived as resilient, assuming continued full-price sell-through, favorable product mix within footwear, and a gradually higher DTC contribution; analysts argue that even modest improvements in conversion can raise realized price and reduce promotional leakage. Third, EPS outperformance is expected to stem from operating leverage: marketing dollars are increasingly targeted, logistics are scaling with volume, and prior investments in digital and retail operations are now yielding efficiency gains. The 59.53% year-over-year EPS growth estimate reflects that view, with upside seen if both mix and conversion break positively and costs remain disciplined. In aggregate, the majority of institutions appear to be underwriting a scenario in which the brand converts elevated traffic into revenue and profit at a faster clip than in prior quarters, with Asia-Pacific strength providing an additional growth cushion if North America remains mixed. On this setup, investors heading into August 11, 2026 will be focused on the degree to which reported numbers ratify the conversion thesis, the tone around full-price sell-through, and whether operating leverage comes through to the income statement as expected.Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
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