As of July 24, international gold prices experienced a decline on Thursday, July 23, as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on bullion. This was compounded by a sharp rebound in crude oil prices, which offset safe-haven buying driven by U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions and the U.S. imposition of 10% to 12.5% tariffs on 60 economies. Consequently, gold failed to extend its recovery, erasing part of the gains from Tuesday and Wednesday. The short-term outlook suggests the metal will continue to trade within the recent weeks' consolidation range, offering opportunities for both long and short positions.
In terms of specific price action, gold opened the Asian session at $4,119.86 per ounce, initially reaching a daily high of $4,140.83 before encountering resistance and declining steadily. The sell-off extended into early U.S. trading, where it hit a daily low of $4,040.12, after which it stabilized into a narrow range. The session closed at $4,049.28, with a daily range of $100.71. Compared to Wednesday's closing price of $4,129.85, this represented a drop of $80.57, or 1.95%.
Looking ahead to Friday, July 24, international gold opened with a continuation of the narrow consolidation, showing a slight bearish bias. Yesterday's decline below the 30-day moving average and the Bollinger Band midpoint has intensified technical selling pressure. Additionally, the sharp rebound in crude oil prices on Thursday strengthens expectations for interest rate hikes, while the U.S. dollar index also posted a significant recovery, reinforcing a short-term bullish trend. These factors collectively exert downward pressure on gold prices.
In the near term, gold is expected to remain range-bound, caught between the inflationary pressures and interest rate outlook driven by stronger crude oil, and the safe-haven demand stemming from geopolitical tensions and tariff concerns. This balancing act is likely to keep the metal within the recent weeks' consolidation zone.
Today's economic calendar features the U.S. July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary, the U.S. July S&P Global Services PMI preliminary, and the U.S. June new home sales annualized (in millions). The market consensus points to these data releases being bearish for gold. Therefore, intraday trading strategy leans towards shorting on bounces to the Bollinger Band midpoint and the 30-day moving average resistance.
On the weekly chart, gold has been undergoing consolidation and adjustment over the past few weeks, showing signs of bottoming out and a potential upward trajectory. This week, the metal has stabilized and risen, but has since pulled back. While it could still form a bullish doji reversal pattern, there remains downside risk and the potential for further consolidation before another decline, unless it breaks above the 60-week moving average resistance. Support is eyed at the trendline near $3,930, where a bullish bounce is anticipated, or at the 100-week moving average around $3,650, which could trigger a more significant rally.
On the daily chart, gold recently rebounded from support above the trendline but failed to sustain the upward momentum, encountering resistance and falling back. It is now trading below the 30-day moving average and the Bollinger Band midpoint, indicating bearish dominance. The intraday strategy is to sell on rallies to the mid-line or the 30-day moving average resistance.
Below are the initial intraday support and resistance levels for reference. Actual entry and exit points will be based on real-time position notifications:
Gold: Support below at $4,030 or $4,000; resistance above at $4,080 or $4,115.
Silver: Support below at $57.00 or $55.95; resistance above at $58.55 or $59.55.
Comments