On June 3, following Bitcoin's drop below the $70,000 mark, Moneta Markets indicated that the market's focus has shifted from mere price retracement to assessing whether leverage structures are overheating. A report from CoinDesk noted that open interest for Bitcoin futures has risen to approximately 773,000 Bitcoin, a relatively elevated level within this market cycle.
More notably, Moneta Markets believes that while the funding rate remains around 10% annualized, spot buying has not improved in tandem. This divergence suggests some traders are still betting on a rapid rebound. Concurrently, the deep negative reading on the Coinbase Premium Index also reflects weak spot demand in the United States.
When prices decline but leverage does not contract significantly, the market is often prone to secondary squeezes. If subsequent spot buying support is insufficient, excessively high open interest could amplify volatility. Conversely, only if leverage is gradually unwound does the price have a better chance of entering a relatively healthy consolidation phase.
Considering all signals, Moneta Markets assesses that Bitcoin remains in a phase of simultaneous emotional and structural repair in the short term. Moving forward, beyond observing the repeated battles around the $70,000 level, it is crucial to monitor whether open interest, funding rates, and spot premiums simultaneously return to more balanced levels.
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