SpaceX ended the session at USD 112.20, slipping 0.31% from the previous close. The options market saw heavy institutional activity, with a $6.57 million synthetic short and a $4.40 million outright put purchase dominating the tape, both pointing to a deepening bearish conviction among large traders.
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Options Indicators
SPCX’s implied volatility stands at 114.57%, and with an IV percentile of 97.63%, current option volatility is in a clearly elevated range, indicating that options are priced expensively relative to the stock’s recent history. The IV/HV ratio of 2.25 further shows implied volatility is running well above historical realized volatility, suggesting the market is embedding a sizable premium for future movement and that outright long-option purchases face a relatively high pricing hurdle. The Call/Put volume ratio is 1.99.
Large Trades
A synthetic short position worth $6.57 million was the largest displayed trade, built by selling 2,000 Jan. 15, 2027 $130.00 calls and buying 2,000 Jan. 15, 2027 $95.00 puts. With $3.70 million collected from the short call leg and $2.87 million paid for the long put leg, the strategy generated a net credit of $0.83 million. Both legs were out of the money versus the reference stock price of $112.20, and the structure expresses a distinctly bearish directional view with long-dated exposure. Strategically, this synthetic short mirrors short stock behavior over the strike range and is typically used to position for downside while taking in premium upfront, suggesting the trader expects SPCX to weaken materially over time.
A PUT buy worth $4.40 million was the other major displayed trade, consisting of 5,000 Aug. 7, 2026 $110.00 puts purchased outright. With the stock at $112.20, the strike sat slightly out of the money at execution, making this a straightforward bearish wager on near-to-medium-term downside. As a single-leg long put, the trade reflects a premium-paid structure that seeks convex downside exposure, offering leverage to a decline in SPCX while limiting maximum risk to the premium spent. The size and proximity of the strike to the current share price indicate a trader looking for a meaningful pullback rather than a distant tail-risk hedge.
Overall sentiment in SPCX large options activity was clearly bearish. The flow was dominated by downside-oriented positioning, led by a sizable long-dated synthetic short and reinforced by aggressive put buying near the current stock price, which together point to traders expecting weakness rather than merely hedging remote risk. While there was some bullish activity elsewhere in the tape, the character and scale of the largest trades show that institutional positioning was primarily tilted toward downside exposure, leaving the broader large-trade conclusion firmly negative on SPCX.
Strategy Reference
Given the elevated IV percentile, traders looking to fade the bearish institutional flow could consider selling the $80.00 strike put in a put credit spread to collect premium while defining risk, or sell a covered call above the $130.00 resistance zone for a low probability of assignment.
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