Abstract
Deere & Company will report fiscal second-quarter results on May 21, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview outlines consensus-level forecasts on revenue, earnings, and margins, reviews last quarter’s print, and distills the most relevant drivers and majority analyst viewpoints shaping the setup into the event.Market Forecast
Based on the latest compiled forecast, Deere & Company’s current quarter revenue is estimated at 11.53 billion US dollars, implying a 6.88% year-over-year increase, with estimated EPS of 5.70 indicating 2.18% year-over-year growth and estimated EBIT of 1.99 billion US dollars up 1.80% year over year; explicit gross profit margin and net margin forecasts were not disclosed. While margin guidance is not specified, the mix of seasonal shipment timing and cost normalization is expected to be a central determinant of profitability.The main business is positioned to translate seasonal production and delivery patterns into stronger throughput, supported by dealer order intake and backlog execution into the quarter under review. Within reported lines, net sales remained the principal earnings lever last quarter at 8.00 billion US dollars, up 17.51% year over year, and are expected to remain the key driver this quarter as deliveries align with seasonal demand and production schedules.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Deere & Company posted revenue of 8.00 billion US dollars with a gross profit margin of 22.19%, net profit attributable to the parent company of 656.00 million US dollars, a net profit margin of 6.83%, and adjusted EPS of 2.42, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 24.14% on per-share earnings while revenue grew 17.51% year over year. Quarter on quarter, net profit contracted by 38.40%, underscoring the sensitivity of earnings to production timing, mix, and cost progress in the early part of the fiscal year.A notable financial highlight was the performance relative to expectations: revenue exceeded estimates by 314.83 million US dollars and adjusted EPS surpassed expectations by 0.37, signaling better-than-modeled shipments and expense control despite softer year-over-year EPS. Regarding the composition of results, net sales contributed 8.00 billion US dollars, up 17.51% year over year, while the financial and interest line added 1.34 billion US dollars and other revenue totaled 267.00 million US dollars.
Current Quarter Outlook
Equipment and Net Sales Outlook
The most important factor for this fiscal second quarter is the execution and conversion of net sales into delivered units, parts, and software, as the company cycles through seasonal production ramps. Forecast revenue of 11.53 billion US dollars implies a measurable step-up from the prior quarter’s 8.00 billion US dollars, consistent with normal fiscal-year cadence and with the company’s forecast pointing to 6.88% year-over-year growth. Mix between high-value equipment, aftermarket parts, and precision features will shape gross profit dollar creation and determine how far the 22.19% gross margin from last quarter can expand or hold in the period.Pricing realization remains an underlying buffer for operating profitability, supporting the estimated EBIT of 1.99 billion US dollars (up 1.80% year over year) despite tighter year-over-year EPS growth of 2.18%. Management’s operational levers this quarter include aligning build schedules with dealer pull-through, managing component costs and logistics, and sustaining price discipline in core equipment lines while protecting parts availability. Within net sales, the balance between higher-horsepower equipment and smaller models influences average selling prices, and the cadence of precision-enabled features affects both margins and attachment revenue.
Parts and services typically provide recurring revenue and more stable margin contribution; their momentum will be a focal point for investors as it can mitigate variability from equipment cycles. The degree to which parts and precision technology adoption offsets unit variability will directly influence gross profit dollars and EPS conversion. Absent explicit margin guidance, the market will look for evidence of cost deflation passing through, throughput efficiencies, and improved factory absorption as the quarter progresses.
Financial Services Outlook
The financial and interest business contributed 1.34 billion US dollars last quarter, offering a stabilizing earnings stream and supporting customer acquisition and dealer inventory financing. This quarter, key watch points include portfolio yield, funding costs, and credit loss trends as they collectively determine net interest income and risk-adjusted returns. Elevated financing yields can support segment profitability, but any softening in used equipment values or incremental delinquency formation could require prudent provisioning and will be evaluated closely by the market.Underwriting discipline, residual value management, and the health of equipment resale channels remain critical to sustaining profitability, particularly as the installed base ages and cycles through trade-in and replacement windows. The settlement achieved in the right-to-repair litigation removes a layer of legal uncertainty and preserves the company’s pathway of providing access to repair tools and diagnostic software under structured frameworks, which can help maintain the integrity of parts and service economics across the ownership lifecycle. Given the link between equipment sales and financing activity, this quarter’s origination volume, lease renewals, and dealer inventory financing flows provide useful forward signals on the health of the order pipeline.
The financial services outlook also intersects with customer affordability; flexible financing options can support demand during uneven periods by smoothing cash flows and replacing up-front expenditures with predictable payment schedules. As a result, even without explicit top-line guidance for the segment, investors will parse commentary on net interest margins, provision expense, and portfolio performance to triangulate how much earnings carryover this segment can provide to consolidated results in the current quarter. A constructive outcome would show stable portfolio credit trends, disciplined funding cost management, and steady origination activity consistent with seasonality.
Stock Price Drivers This Quarter
The stock reaction around this report is likely to be influenced by three interlocking themes: delivery execution versus seasonal expectations, gross margin trajectory, and the balance of revenue growth against profitability implied by the forecasted EPS and EBIT. Consensus-level estimates imply revenue of 11.53 billion US dollars and EPS of 5.70, so surprises on shipments, parts mix, and pricing will be parsed as signals of whether the earnings run-rate can outpace modeled expectations into the second half of the fiscal year. Any qualitative commentary that narrows the range of outcomes for margins, or quantifies price-cost carryover and manufacturing efficiency gains, can serve as an immediate catalyst.Beyond the headline figures, backlog conversion and dealer inventory health will be watched to assess sustainability into subsequent quarters. Investors will also pay attention to update commentary on product availability and lead times, given their influence on channel sell-through and order behavior. Finally, litigation overhang has eased with the right-to-repair settlement pending court approval; clarity on implementation and continued access frameworks can help investors gain confidence in parts and service monetization, which is an important pillar for margin resilience.
Currency movements, while not highlighted in the forecast, can nudge reported results depending on the blend of non-U.S. revenues and costs; management remarks on translation and transaction effects could inform how to model the remainder of the fiscal year. Capital deployment choices—such as the pace of reinvestment, working capital discipline, and any commentary on shareholder returns—will further color sentiment regarding the durability of free cash flow. Taken together, clear evidence that price, mix, and cost actions are bridging from last quarter’s 22.19% gross margin and 6.83% net margin toward a steadier run-rate will likely matter more than small variations in the revenue line relative to the 11.53 billion US dollars estimate.
Analyst Opinions
Across identified notes since January 2026, the skew of views is decisively positive: bullish vs. bearish stands at 4:0, with several additional neutral or hold stances that do not challenge the positive majority. The bullish cohort includes Wells Fargo (Buy, 750 US dollars target), Oppenheimer (Buy, 715 US dollars target), Barclays (Buy, 530 US dollars target), and Wolfe Research (Outperform, 660 US dollars target). On the neutral side, Jefferies upgraded the shares to Hold with a 550 US dollars target, while Baird maintained a Neutral stance at 580 US dollars and Citi reiterated a Hold at 625 US dollars.The majority bullish view centers on an expectation that Deere & Company can deliver to or modestly exceed the quarter’s 11.53 billion US dollars revenue estimate while protecting profitability through pricing discipline, parts and precision attachment momentum, and continued manufacturing efficiencies. Wells Fargo’s higher target reflects confidence in earnings power normalization as shipments accelerate seasonally and cost actions sustain gross profit dollar generation; this aligns with the forecasted EBIT of 1.99 billion US dollars advancing 1.80% year over year. Oppenheimer’s stance underscores the durability of cash generation and the contribution of recurring revenue streams tied to parts, software, and services, which help buffer equipment cyclicality in the earnings mix.
Barclays’ Buy rating highlights the valuation support embedded in the shares if delivery execution meets the 5.70 EPS expectation with constructive commentary on margin management; investors often place a premium on visibility into price realization and cost glide paths, especially where headline revenue growth is moderate. Wolfe Research’s Outperform rating complements this view by emphasizing operational levers that can preserve return on capital across uneven throughput, which is relevant in light of last quarter’s 22.19% gross margin baseline and the need to translate seasonal volumes into incremental profitability. Neutral voices such as Jefferies and Baird generally acknowledge improved setup but prefer additional confirmation on multi-quarter demand and margin trajectories, framing the event as a potential way to raise confidence rather than to pre-empt it.
In practical terms, the bullish camp appears to expect in-line to slightly better revenue, controlled expenses, and mix advantages that protect EPS near or above the 5.70 estimate. They will look for confirmation that backlog conversion is tracking plan, dealership inventory remains prudent relative to sell-through, and parts and precision features sustain recurring revenue and margin. If management’s commentary can tie together shipment execution, price-cost balance, and early reads on the second half with measurable guardrails, the positive skew in analyst targets suggests the path of least resistance remains favorable.
The neutral group’s constructive-but-cautious posture signals that the bar for upside is achievable if operating metrics cohere with the quantitative forecast markers: 11.53 billion US dollars of revenue (+6.88% year over year), 1.99 billion US dollars of EBIT (+1.80% year over year), and 5.70 of EPS (+2.18% year over year). From this vantage, the pivotal factor is less about headline growth and more about translating seasonal volume and price realization into margins that can either hold near last quarter’s 22.19% gross margin or improve modestly as cost deflation and absorption benefits accrue. Given the legal clarity added by the right-to-repair settlement framework, removal of that uncertainty supports the bullish narrative that recurring parts and services revenue remains well anchored, providing an underpinning for sustained cash generation.
Overall, the majority analysis anticipates a quarter that validates operational execution and margin stewardship, with particular emphasis on parts and precision-enabled revenue as a stabilizing force. If the print and guide echo the quantitative forecast contours and reinforce the visibility of earnings drivers into the second half of the fiscal year, the consensus among the bullish institutions is that the shares can maintain positive momentum into subsequent updates.
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