The current US-Iran situation remains uncertain, with future developments likely to follow a pattern of "fighting while talking." Although global capital markets have gradually desensitized to the conflict and A-shares have continued to rebound, the impact of the conflict on global industrial chains continues to deepen. Against this backdrop, how will China's industrial chain be affected? Which industries may suffer losses? Which industries face opportunities? It is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis and prepare contingency plans in advance. The core conclusions are as follows.
The US-Iran conflict asymmetrically impacts China's industrial chain through three main logical channels. First, the cost shock chain: Rising crude oil prices will transmit step by step along the "crude oil → petrochemical raw materials → finished products" chain, with natural gas following a similar pattern. Generally, the further downstream an industry is, the weaker its ability to pass on costs and the greater its operational pressure. Industries with high consumption of oil and gas resources, such as petroleum processing, chemicals, gas supply, transportation, and metal smelting, will face significant cost shocks from disrupted supply and rising prices. Second, the energy substitution chain: High oil prices significantly improve the economic viability of substitutes like coal and new energy. Coal chemical routes become competitive with petrochemicals when oil prices exceed $80 per barrel; simultaneously, rising oil prices accelerate the substitution of electric vehicles for fuel-powered vehicles, speeding up the development of the new energy industry. Third, the foreign trade transfer chain: The impact of energy supply shocks is asymmetric across countries. China's coal-dominated energy structure, complete industrial system, and approximately 57% dependence on Middle Eastern crude oil give it a unique stability advantage over countries like Japan and South Korea (70%-95% dependence) and some Southeast Asian economies, enabling China to capture transferred international orders.
Four major industries are expected to face significant challenges. First, the petroleum refining industry faces a dual squeeze of rising costs and capped selling prices. As of April 24, Brent crude had risen 45.3% since late February, but the maximum domestic gasoline retail guidance price increased only 21.4%. The crack spread for refined products turned negative, indicating refined product prices failed to keep pace with crude cost increases. Second, the petrochemical industry: While upstream segments can pass on costs, they are forced to reduce output due to policies prioritizing fuel supply over chemical production. Downstream segments, with weaker bargaining power, see profits squeezed. For instance, the production gross margin for polyethylene turned deeply negative. Third, the transportation sector, particularly road and air transport where fuel costs account for 30%-50% of expenses, is under significant pressure. Fourth, the gas supply industry is impacted by potential霍尔木兹海峡blockades and rising natural gas prices. With high import dependence, rising purchase costs directly squeeze industry profits.
Six industries stand to benefit, albeit through different logics and to varying degrees. First, oil extraction directly benefits from higher terminal selling prices. With extraction costs for major Chinese oil companies well below $80 per barrel, profit margins expand significantly. Second, coal benefits from substitution demand in power generation and chemicals, but the extent is limited due to long-term contract pricing mechanisms. Third, coal chemistry sees enhanced relative economics, with operating rates rising notably for routes like coal-to-olefins. Fourth, steel, relying primarily on coal-based processes, may capture international orders transferred from Japan and South Korea, where energy costs force production cuts and price hikes. Fifth, electrical equipment like photovoltaics and energy storage benefits from both substitution demand and order transfer logic. Sixth, new energy vehicles see enhanced cost competitiveness versus fuel-powered vehicles. Customs data show strong export growth for China's "new three" products (photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and electric vehicles).
In summary, the impact of the US-Iran conflict on China's industrial chain is two-sided: it sounds an alarm for energy security while forcing momentum for autonomous substitution; it brings short-term cost pains but accelerates the shaping of long-term competitiveness. A strategic perspective is essential to objectively view the conflict's impact on industry and the economy: neither panicking over short-term pressures nor becoming complacent over partial gains, but instead transforming external crises into strategic opportunities to deepen structural reforms and enhance industrial chain autonomy and controllability. This is not only necessary for responding to the current conflict but also a essential path for China's economy to achieve high-level self-reliance within the new development paradigm.
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