Bitcoin has commenced the third quarter in a notably weak technical position, according to analysis from RadexMarkets. As reported, BTC has recorded consecutive declines over the first two quarters of 2026, a pattern of opening weakness historically seen only in bearish years like 2018 and 2022.
RadexMarkets suggests that this weak quarterly performance indicates that selling pressure is not merely a brief panic. Instead, it is driven by a combination of factors including persistent outflows from ETFs, declining on-chain activity, a strong US dollar, and a rotation of capital into AI-related stocks.
The report notes that Bitcoin fell approximately 22% in the first quarter and a further 14% in the second. While a minor rebound occurred in early July, historical seasonal patterns have proven unreliable during such weak years. Some analysts are now identifying lower support levels as key areas to monitor going forward.
For the third quarter, the primary focus will be on whether Bitcoin can firmly hold above the $60,000 level and if the pace of ETF outflows begins to slow. RadexMarkets analysis indicates that any technical rebound is likely to remain limited unless fund flows show improvement. A sustainable market recovery would require a clear reduction in selling pressure.
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